The Trading Post | 06.25.26

Good morning,

Nasdaq futures are ripping after Micron and Qualcomm gave the AI-chip crowd something shiny to chase again, airlines and travel stocks are catching a bid as crude keeps falling, the dollar is pressuring commodities like it found a new hobby, Micron’s earnings added fuel to the AI memory trade, and today’s PCE inflation data could decide whether this rally gets legs or gets introduced to a wood chipper.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 06.24.26 market close.

Market News

• Nasdaq Futures Spike As Micron And Qualcomm Wake Up The AI Chip Trade: MU and QCOM are lifting tech premarket after upbeat AI-driven forecasts, giving semis a bounce after the sector’s recent beatdown. Watch MU, QCOM, NVDA, AVGO, AMD, SMCI, SOXX, and SMH for gap-and-go strength or the classic “beautiful open, ugly close” trap. Reuters 

• Semis Try To Rebound After An 8% Sector Dump: The chip trade is still volatile, but failed downside follow-through can trigger a nasty short-covering squeeze. Opening range breaks in MU and QCOM are the cleanest intraday tells; if they hold VWAP and prior reaction lows, bulls may get a real shot instead of another participation trophy. Reuters 

• Rotation Favors Airlines And Travel As Crude Keeps Sliding: With Brent under pressure and WTI sliding, fuel-sensitive names like DAL, AAL, UAL, CCL, NCLH, and JETS are getting a tailwind while high-flying tech cools off. Watch long airlines/travel vs. weak QQQ or XLK rallies if the rotation sticks. Reuters 

• Dollar Strength Smacks Gold, Crude, And Commodity Stocks: A stronger dollar is pressuring metals, oil, energy names, and miners. Watch GC, CL, GLD, USO, XLE, and GDX for breakdown-backtest setups; rallies into resistance may be shortable if DXY keeps acting like it just discovered leverage. Reuters 

• PCE Inflation Data Keeps Rate-Hike Nerves Alive: Today’s PCE release puts ES, NQ, rates, financials, utilities, REITs, and high-multiple growth stocks directly in the volatility splash zone. Keep an eye on Wednesday’s S&P low near 7,336 as the line in the sand; lose it with volume and momentum shorts may wake up fast. Hold it, and the dip-buyers will act like they personally invented risk management. Reuters

Earnings We’re Watching

• Acuity Brands, Inc. (AYI) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Commercial Metals Company (CMC) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) - Thursday (BMO) 

• McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) - Thursday (BMO) 

• TD SYNNEX (SNX) - Thursday (BMO) 

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

Which is annoying, because most traders would prefer risk to come from something more glamorous — like “institutional liquidity imbalances” or “cross-asset volatility repricing” — instead of the brutally simple truth that half the problem is clicking buttons without a plan.

Today’s tape has all the ingredients for overtrading: hot semis, commodity breakdowns, dollar strength, sector rotation, and PCE volatility. That is basically a buffet for anyone determined to turn one decent idea into seventeen mediocre trades.

The job is not to trade every headline. The job is to know which headline actually changes the setup, where the trade is wrong, and how much damage you’re willing to take before admitting the market did not, in fact, read your thesis.

Risk is not the scary part. Unclear risk is. The market can handle your confidence. It cannot handle your confusion.