The Trading Post | 06.30.25

Good morning,

US stock futures are stalling into quarter-end, AI enthusiasm is still doing its best “totally normal valuation behavior” impression, Wall Street is digesting its best quarter in six years, Middle East tensions are easing, oil and gold are sliding, and the dollar is firming as global FX gets spicy.

Let’s jump in.

Pre-Market Performance

As of 06.29.26 market close.

Market News

• US Futures Stall Into Quarter-End As S&P Hovers Near Records: Index futures are little changed as traders stare at prior highs, AI spending, earnings hopes, and the Fed outlook heading into the second half. Expect chop, fake breaks, and “that looked like a breakout until it wasn’t” behavior around ES/NQ highs. Use opening range and VWAP as your intraday referee instead of chasing the first candle like it owes you money. Reuters / Reuters

• AI Spending, Earnings, And Fed Outlook Set Up A High-Stakes Second Half: The market’s next leg likely depends on whether AI capex keeps justifying the multiples, earnings hold up, and the Fed doesn’t decide to ruin everyone’s group project. Watch SPY/SPX and QQQ resistance near recent highs for failed-breakout shorts, but flip to breakout-pullback mode only if buyers hold above prior highs with volume. Reuters

• Tech Bubble Fears Flare As Mega-Cap AI Names Whipsaw: The trillion-dollar crowd remains the main volatility engine, with AI optimism colliding with options-driven swings. Focus on QQQ, XLK, and mega-cap tech for mean reversion: fade extended gap-ups into resistance, or buy capitulation flushes into the 10- and 20-day moving averages if buyers step in cleanly. For options traders, rich IV favors defined-risk spreads instead of naked heroics. Reuters

• Wall Street Digests Its Best Quarter In Six Years: US stocks are entering the second half with stretched valuations, crowded AI leadership, and a market that suddenly remembers other sectors exist. Screen for relative strength in industrials, financials, and energy versus QQQ. If leadership broadens, long/short pairs could work nicely. If not, it’s just another “everything is diversified except the actual returns” market. Reuters

• Middle East Tensions Ease As Oil And Gold Slide: With US-Iran attacks paused and risk appetite improving, crude and gold are under pressure. Watch CL and GC for short setups on rallies into broken support, especially if bear flags form under recent breakdown zones. In equities, improving risk tone keeps high-beta indices and cyclical sectors in play if pullbacks hold above last week’s higher lows. Reuters / Reuters

• Dollar Firms As Global FX Shifts And Yen Weakness Deepens: The dollar is catching a bid while more central banks signal plans to trim USD holdings and the yen sinks near multi-decade lows. Currency traders can watch long USD setups breaking out of multi-month bases and short JPY structures on failed rallies into prior breakdown zones. Gold weakness remains tied to the stronger-dollar theme, because apparently gold did not receive the “safe haven” memo. Reuters

Earnings We’re Watching

• Nike Inc (NKE) - Tuesday (AMC)

• Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) - Tuesday (AMC)

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

This is one of those quotes that sounds wise because it is, unfortunately, annoying and true.

Every cycle comes with a shiny new reason why valuation, risk management, and basic gravity no longer apply. In the dot-com era, it was eyeballs. In the housing bubble, it was “real estate always goes up.” Today, it’s AI capex, trillion-dollar market caps, and investors politely pretending that every company with a server rack deserves a premium multiple and a standing ovation.

That does not mean the AI trade is wrong. Trends can run much longer than skeptics can stay smug. But “this time it’s different” becomes dangerous when traders stop using stops, stop respecting levels, and start confusing a good narrative with a good entry.

The market does not care how compelling the story is. It cares where buyers show up, where sellers defend, and whether price confirms the thesis. Everything else is just expensive poetry.

Trade the setup. Respect the level. And remember: the phrase “new paradigm” has probably emptied more accounts than bad earnings, bad fills, and bad advice from people with laser eyes in their profile picture combined.