The Trading Post | 07.01.26

Good morning,

Futures are slipping as the second half begins, rate-hike odds are keeping yields elevated, the AI melt-up is cooling into earnings season, US–Iran risk is keeping energy on watch, and Nike and Shutterstock are serving up clean premarket single-stock chaos. Nothing says “fresh quarter” like traders immediately asking whether the rally needs adult supervision.

Let’s jump in.

Pre-Market Performance

As of 06.30.26 market close.

Market News

• Futures Slip As H2 Begins, Fed And Mideast Tensions Test Risk Appetite: U.S. index futures are starting Q3 on the back foot as Middle East uncertainty and expectations for another Fed hike weigh on risk appetite. Bias remains sell-rips / fade-strength in ES, YM, and NQ while futures stay below overnight highs and VWAP. Watch for mean-reversion bounces near prior cash-session lows around ADP, ISM, and Warsh comments. Money.USNews / Reuters

• Rate-Hike Bets And Hot Job Openings Keep Yields Elevated Into Key Data: Money markets are pricing a roughly one-in-three chance of a July hike after job openings rose to a two-year high. That keeps pressure on long-duration tech, small-cap growth, REITs, and utilities. If the 10-year yield breaks higher intraday, richly valued momentum names may get reacquainted with gravity. Tenderly, of course. Reuters / Money.USNews

• S&P 500 Retreats As June AI Melt-Up Cools And Earnings Bar Gets Taller: After a strong first half and a cooling period for the Magnificent Seven, traders are shifting focus to whether AI spending can keep justifying heroic valuations. Treat big-cap tech as a trade, not a religion: use prior swing highs, gap fills, and the 20/50-day moving averages for breakout or rejection setups. Earnings season is where narratives go to either graduate or get publicly humiliated. Reuters / Trading Economics

• US–Iran Risk Keeps Energy In Focus As Q3 Opens Cautious: Fresh headlines from Tehran suggest peace-talk progress is not exactly sprinting toward the finish line, keeping crude and energy equities on watch. Trade WTI, Brent, and quality energy names around headline-driven breakouts or breakdowns, and consider pairing energy strength against index weakness if oil spikes on geopolitical risk. Defined-risk strategies still beat pretending tail risk is “probably fine.” Money.USNews / Reuters

• Nike Sinks And Shutterstock Plunges, Offering Clean Single-Stock Setups: Nike is down roughly 3.5% premarket after earnings showed its turnaround still has some cardio to do, while Shutterstock is down about 28% after scrapping its Getty Images merger. For NKE, watch failed bounces into pre-gap support for shorts, or defended long-term moving averages for contrarian scalps. For SSTK, use opening range, VWAP, and prior lows carefully—28% gaps can snap back violently because apparently stocks also enjoy jump scares. Money.USNews

Earnings We’re Watching

• General Mills, Inc. (GIS) - Wednesday (BMO) 

• MSC Industrial Direct Co. Inc. (MSM) - Wednesday (BMO) 

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

Every market cycle eventually finds a new costume for the same old overconfidence. This time it’s AI capex, Fed hike bets, geopolitical whiplash, and a market that spent June acting like gravity was a rumor started by short sellers.

For traders, the point is not to reject every rally or worship every dip. It’s to remember that price action does not care how elegant the story sounds. If tech keeps failing at resistance, it’s not “healthy consolidation” just because someone on TV owns a vest and a price target. If yields keep rising, long-duration names may struggle. If oil spikes on fresh headlines, energy can move before your carefully crafted macro thesis finishes loading.

Different headline. Same lesson.

Trade the setup. Respect the level. And when the market starts whispering “this time it’s different,” maybe check whether your stop is actually in place—or whether it’s just a vibe wearing a helmet.