The Trading Post | 07.02.25

Good morning,

Small caps are staging a coup while big tech takes a beating, Tesla’s delivery day could make or break the stock, Trump’s $4.5 trillion tax bonanza squeaked through the Senate, the dollar’s falling off a cliff despite solid data, and oil’s stuck in the middle of geopolitics and presidential price targets.

Ever wonder if that gap will fill? Gap Trading Stats is the first-of-its-kind software that gives you historical data and probability insights to trade gaps with confidence instead of guesswork. 

Let’s jump in.

Pre-Market Performance

As of 07.01.25 market close.

Market News

• Small Caps Steal the Spotlight: Russell 2000 pops +0.94% while the Nasdaq sulks -0.82%. Worst Q2 dogs are now up 3.3%, while former heroes are -2.3%. Rotation is real, folks. NASDAQ

• Tesla’s Judgment Day: Q2 delivery numbers drop today. Street’s calling for 390k, but Musk’s drama with Trump, China heat, and 24% YTD drop make this a high-wire act. Options traders: time to shine. Yahoo Finance

• Trump’s Tax Triumph: The “Big Beautiful Bill” squeaks through Senate 51-50. $4.5T in tax cuts, defense spending, and debt explosions. Banks are giddy. Treasuries…not so much. Aljazeera

• Dollar Dives Deeper: Greenback hits lows unseen since 2022, even as jobs data holds up. Rate cuts whisper for September. EUR/USD flirting with 1.18, gold eyeballing $4,000. CNN

• Oil Stuck in Trump’s $50 Dream: Oil’s down despite OPEC+ tweaks. JPMorgan sees $66 for ‘25. Administration wants cheap oil to tame inflation. Upstream producers crying into their rigs. JP Morgan

A Message From Wealth Builders HQ

Trade Gaps Like Za Pro with Data-Backed Insights 

We've all been there – staring at a gap on the chart, wondering if it'll fill or run. Instead of guessing, what if you could know the historical probability based on gap size, direction, and even the day of the week? 

Gap Trading Stats is a first-of-its kind software built exclusively for traders who want to master gap trading through data, not hunches. It’s more than just another screener...it's the first platform that analyzes how gaps actually behave over time. 

Gap Trading Stats dives deep into gap statistics, showing you patterns like full vs. partial gap fills, how gap size affects probability, and whether Monday gaps behave differently than Friday gaps.  

Whether you're a swing trader looking for multi-day gap fill plays or an intraday trader scalping quick moves, having this historical context gives you a massive edge. 

Stop trading gaps blind. Start trading them with the confidence that only real data can provide. 

All trading involves risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 

Trade Ideas

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

Get these ideas delivered to your inbox daily with Trade With Rob. It’s 100% free. Sign up here.

Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

Traders love to talk about their “edge” like it’s some mystical secret sauce passed down by hedge fund shamans. Hate to break it to you: it’s just math. An edge doesn’t guarantee you’ll win the next trade — it simply means you’re slightly less likely to lose your shirt over the long run.

So, cherish your edge, nurture it, and don’t blow it all on a YOLO Tesla options straddle just because Elon tweeted a meme. Remember: a “higher probability” is not a certainty — it’s merely the universe giving you a polite nudge rather than a punch in the face.