The Trading Post | 07.03.25

July 03, 2025

Good morning,

June’s Non-Farm Payrolls drops early with recession vibes, Trump slashes tariffs on Vietnam but keeps China sweating, Wall Street shuts shop at 1 PM because freedom, tech stocks keep flexing record highs, and oil’s putting on a rally cap fueled by trade optimism.

Ever wonder if that gap will fill? Gap Trading Stats is the first-of-its-kind software that gives you historical data and probability insights to trade gaps with confidence instead of guesswork. 

Let’s jump in.

Pre-Market Performance

As of July 2, 2025 market close.

Market News

  • June Non-Farm Payrolls Drop Early – Cue Volatility:
    Markets brace for fireworks as June NFP hits at 8:30 AM ET today. Forecasts call for 110,000 jobs, sharply below May’s 139,000. ADP data already flagged a 33,000 drop — first since March 2023. A miss could juice Fed cut hopes, sink the dollar, and send gold moon-ward toward $3,350/oz. Equities rose 0.7% Wednesday but might change their mind in a hurry. Noor Trends

  • Trump’s Vietnam Deal Hits the Tape:
    President Trump inked a new US-Vietnam deal, slashing tariffs on Vietnamese goods to 20% (down from 46% in April). But China-transshipped stuff? Still 40%. Nike soared 4% on the news, proving that in geopolitics, the swoosh always finds a way. Keep an eye on Vietnam-heavy companies for the next trade headlines before the July 9 deadline. CNBC

  • Happy Short Day – Markets Close Early:
    US stock markets ring the closing bell at 1 PM ET today, bond traders hang around until 2 PM ET. Expect weirdly low volume and maybe some random chop. The S&P 500 (+0.47%) and Nasdaq (+0.94%) nailed new record highs Wednesday, teeing up potential breakouts if NFP doesn’t ruin the party. Economic Times

  • Tech Flexes New Highs…Again:
    Nasdaq just posted its third record close in a week. YTD, Palantir is up 80.2%, Seagate +67.2%, Super Micro Computer +60.8%. The “Magnificent Seven” are still moon-bound — Meta’s up 26.1% YTD, Microsoft +18.0%. But valuations are stretched tighter than a trader’s stop-loss. Watch PLTR and SMCI for pullbacks to pounce on. Bank Rate

  • Oil and Metals Get a Trade Deal Pop:
    Oil spiked 3% — biggest gain in two weeks — with Brent near $69 and WTI topping $67. Copper rose 0.8%, zinc up 1.6%. Energy led Wednesday’s rally. WTI might stall near $67 resistance, but more trade deals could keep commodities hot. NDTV

A Message From Wealth Builders HQ

Trade Gaps Like a Pro with Data-Backed Insights 

We've all been there – staring at a gap on the chart, wondering if it'll fill or run. Instead of guessing, what if you could know the historical probability based on gap size, direction, and even the day of the week? 

Gap Trading Stats is a first-of-its kind software built exclusively for traders who want to master gap trading through data, not hunches. It’s more than just another screener...it's the first platform that analyzes how gaps actually behave over time. 

Gap Trading Stats dives deep into gap statistics, showing you patterns like full vs. partial gap fills, how gap size affects probability, and whether Monday gaps behave differently than Friday gaps.  

Whether you're a swing trader looking for multi-day gap fill plays or an intraday trader scalping quick moves, having this historical context gives you a massive edge. 

Stop trading gaps blind. Start trading them with the confidence that only real data can provide. 

All trading involves risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 

Trade Ideas

  • Apple Inc (AAPL)

  • Arista Networks Inc (ANET)

  • Boeing Co (BA)

  • Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)

  • Dollar General Corp (DG)

  • Home Depot Inc (HD)

  • iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)

  • Mastercard Inc (MA)

  • McDonald's Corp (MCD)

  • Morgan Stanley (MS)

  • Micron Technology Inc (MU)

  • NVIDIA Corp (NVDA)

  • Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD)

  • Atlassian Corporation (TEAM)

  • Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

Get these ideas delivered to your inbox daily with Trade With Rob. It’s 100% free. Sign up here.

Daily Moment of Zen

❝

He who lives by the crystal ball will eat shattered glass.

Ray Dalio

Why It Matters:

Nothing like a poetic gut punch for traders heading into a holiday. Translation: obsess over predictions all you want, but the market loves nothing more than proving you spectacularly wrong.

Every Fed pivot, every NFP print, every tweet from Trump about tariffs — your “certainty” today is tomorrow’s confetti. And that’s how crystal balls become shards you’re chewing on while staring at your red P&L.

Trade what’s in front of you, not the clairvoyant fantasy in your head. Because in markets, the only thing certain is uncertainty…and brokerage commissions.