The Trading Post | 07.07.26

Good morning,

Wall Street is warming to SpaceX ahead of its Nasdaq-100 debut, AI chip stocks are trying to prove Monday’s rebound wasn’t just another semiconductor sugar rush, jobs data is keeping Fed hike odds subdued, and Microsoft is cutting thousands of jobs while megacap tech keeps walking the margin tightrope in designer sneakers.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of [DATE] market close.

Market News

• Wall Street Warms To SpaceX Ahead Of Nasdaq-100 Debut: Analysts expect billions in passive buying as index funds rebalance into the $2T-plus rocket-and-satellite heavyweight. Reuters Watch SPCX around the open and into the closing auction for liquidity-driven volatility; passive flows can be beautiful until everyone realizes the exit door is built for one person and a very small carry-on. Reuters

• AI Chip Stocks Rebound, But Breadth Starts Looking Elsewhere: Semis ripped into Monday’s close on renewed AI optimism, but traders are already questioning whether the chip bounce has enough fuel for another leg. Reuters Watch AVGO, NVDA, and AMD for bull flags or failed continuation, while keeping an eye on rotation into hyperscalers, consumer, transports, and biotech. Reuters

• Nasdaq Leads As Semis Lift The Tape: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed sharply higher Monday, powered by Broadcom and the AI-chip crew. Reuters For NQ and ES, pullbacks into rising support remain tradable while the AI narrative stays hot, but prior-day lows are the “don’t get cute” line. AP

• Jobs Data Keeps Rate Anxiety On A Short Leash: Softer labor-market data helped calm some of the Fed-hike panic, giving risk assets enough room to keep levitating without asking too many adult questions. Reuters Translation: the market is still partying, but the Fed is standing in the corner holding a clipboard. MarketWatch

• Microsoft Job Cuts Weigh On Megacap Tech: MSFT slipped after announcing roughly 4,800 job cuts, or about 2.1% of its workforce, adding a little corporate austerity seasoning to the AI spending buffet. Reuters That sets up a relative-weakness watch against stronger Nasdaq leaders, especially if price starts losing key 20- and 50-day moving average zones. The Verge

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

This is the kind of quote that should be tattooed directly onto every trader’s order ticket, preferably right above the button they’re about to click with way too much confidence.

Soros isn’t bragging about being right all the time. That’s amateur hour. He’s saying the real edge is recognizing when the market has politely — or violently — informed you that your thesis is now garbage.

That matters today because SpaceX index flows, AI chip rebounds, Fed-hike odds, and megacap tech weakness all create beautiful little narratives traders can fall in love with. And once you fall in love with a trade, congratulations, you’ve stopped trading and started dating a red candle.

The best traders aren’t the ones who predict every move. They’re the ones who can say, “That setup failed,” exit without needing a three-act emotional courtroom drama, and move on to the next trade with capital and dignity mostly intact.

Being wrong is not the problem. Staying wrong because your ego needs a participation trophy is where the account damage happens.

The market doesn’t reward certainty. It rewards flexibility, risk control, and the ability to admit when your brilliant idea has become an expensive opinion with chart annotations.