The Trading Post | 07.08.26

Good morning,

US stock futures are selling off as Iran cease-fire hopes get shoved into the wood chipper, oil is jumping on renewed Middle East supply fears, traders are bracing for Fed minutes later today, semis remain under pressure, and energy names are suddenly acting like they drank the espresso meant for Nvidia.

Let’s jump in.

Pre-Market Performance

As of 07.07.26 market close.

Market News

• US Futures Tumble As Iran Risk Reignites: S&P and Nasdaq futures are under pressure after President Trump said the Iran deal is “over,” sending traders back into risk-off mode and putting ES/NQ overnight lows and VWAP in play for failed-rally shorts or QQQ put spreads. Reuters

• Oil Rips As Middle East Supply Fears Return: Crude surged as traders repriced disruption risk, making XLE, XOM, and CVX key relative-strength watches while high-duration growth names remain prime candidates for weakness if rates, oil, and fear all decide to carpool. Reuters

• Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq Set For A Risk-Off Open: MarketWatch has the major indexes pointing lower ahead of the bell, so map the overnight high/low, prior close, and first 15–30 minute range before pretending the first candle is a prophecy from Mount Olympus. MarketWatch

• Fed Minutes Hit Later Today: The June meeting minutes are today’s scheduled volatility node, which means intraday traders may want to reduce size or flatten exposure into the release, then trade the post-minutes breakout instead of getting steamrolled by sentence-by-sentence algo theater. CNBC

• Semis Stay Volatile As Crude Steals The Spotlight: Chip weakness remains a major drag on the Nasdaq, keeping SMH, SOXX, NVDA, AMD, and AVGO on watch for breakdowns below key moving averages or sharp short-covering bounces if sellers get too cute. Reuters

• Energy And Defense Rotation Remains In Play: Yesterday’s risk-off rotation into oil and defense names could carry into today, with bull flags, breakout retests, and relative-strength setups favored over chasing extended opening spikes like a raccoon chasing a laser pointer. CNBC

• Gold And Volatility Are Back On The Radar: If risk-off selling accelerates, GLD and VIX products may catch tactical bids, but traders should avoid unattended short-vol positions unless they enjoy learning risk management through blunt force trauma. Reuters

Earnings We’re Watching

• Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI) - Wednesday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

This is the market’s polite way of saying: sometimes the best trade is sitting on your hands until your keyboard files a missing persons report.

Traders love action because action feels productive. Clicking buttons feels like “working.” Entering trades feels like control. But the market does not pay overtime for being busy. It pays for being right, being patient, and not mistaking boredom for opportunity.

The real trap is thinking every candle needs a response. Chop? Trade it. News spike? Chase it. No setup? Invent one. Suddenly your “strategy” is just caffeine with a brokerage account.

This quote hits especially hard on days like today, where geopolitical headlines, oil spikes, Fed minutes, and sector rotation are all fighting for the steering wheel. Conditions matter. A clean trend day, a range-bound digestion day, and a headline-driven fakeout festival should not all be traded the same way.

Great traders know when to press. Better traders know when to pass.

Because Wall Street is very good at separating impatient traders from their money — and it usually starts with the sentence, “I’m just going to take one quick trade.”