The Trading Post | 07.09.26

Good morning,

Oil is cooling after a three-day surge tied to fresh U.S.–Iran tensions, Wall Street futures are trying to bounce, tech earnings expectations are climbing into “anything less than perfection gets punished” territory, the Nasdaq is still showing relative strength, and traders are staring at crude, yields, and Fed patience like they’re reading tea leaves with margin debt.

Let’s jump in.

Pre-Market Performance

As of 07.08.26 market close.

Market News

• Oil Retreats After Three-Day Surge As Futures Bounce: Crude is backing off intraday highs after a sharp geopolitical spike, giving ES, NQ, and YM a chance to recover. Watch opening range breakouts, VWAP reclaims, and failed overnight-high retests. Basically, the tape is trying to act normal while oil keeps waving a flare gun. Reuters 

• Energy Volatility Stays Hot As Hormuz Risk Lingers: WTI and Brent remain elevated after renewed Middle East tension, keeping XLE, XOP, USO, and oil services names in play. Favor vertical spreads over naked premium when IV is inflated, because buying expensive options after the panic starts is how traders make market makers look gifted. Reuters 

• S&P 500 Earnings Bar Jumps As AI Profit Expectations Rise: Q2 profit expectations are climbing, especially in tech, where AI and data-center spending have raised the “please be flawless” threshold. Watch extended AI, cloud, and semi leaders for earnings run-up breakouts — or exhaustion candles if the crowd gets too euphoric and starts naming their covered calls. Reuters 

• Nasdaq Holds Relative Strength While Dow And Cyclicals Lag: Wednesday’s close showed tech holding up better than broader cyclicals, with oil-sensitive groups under pressure. Focus on relative-strength longs in QQQ/AI leaders while stalking weak bounces in transports, airlines, industrials, and other crude-sensitive names. Rotation is alive and well, mostly because the market enjoys making sector ETFs fight in public. Reuters 

• Mixed Jobs Data And Patient Fed Keep Growth Trade In Play: Softer labor data with stable unemployment keeps the “slower but not broken” macro setup alive, which may support growth, REITs, utilities, and homebuilders if yields drift lower. Buy dips only where trend support holds; if price loses VWAP and moving averages, it’s no longer a dip — it’s a trap wearing a nametag. Reuters

Earnings We’re Watching

• PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) - Thursday (BMO)

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

This is the kind of quote that sounds dramatic until you look at a market heatmap and realize it’s basically just a plumbing diagram with better branding.

Capital moves. That’s what it does. It flows toward growth, yield, safety, momentum, fear, greed, liquidity, tax advantages, political favors, AI buzzwords, and occasionally something with actual earnings. Revolutionary stuff.

For traders, the point is simple: don’t get emotionally attached to where money should go. Watch where it is going.

If capital is rotating out of oil-sensitive cyclicals and into tech, that’s the chart. If it’s leaving high-beta semis and sneaking into defensives, that’s the chart. If bonds catch a bid and growth stocks suddenly remember how to behave, that’s the chart.

The market doesn’t care about your thesis unless capital agrees with it.

Your job is not to argue with the flow chart. Your job is to read it before everyone else realizes they’re standing on the wrong side of the arrow.