The Trading Post | 07.13.26

Good morning,

US futures are slipping as fresh US–Iran strikes revive oil and volatility, chip stocks are losing some of their AI-era swagger, the S&P 500’s summer breakout is testing support, CPI and bank earnings are loading the calendar, and the Dow’s relative strength suggests rotation is still alive beneath the surface. In other words, Monday has already chosen violence.

Let’s jump in.

Pre-Market Performance

As of 07.10.26 market close.

Market News

• US Futures Slip as Iran Escalation Reprices the Open: Watch overnight highs and lows in ES, NQ, and YM for opening-range breakouts or failures. Geopolitical headlines remain capable of turning a clean setup into modern art, so keep risk defined. Reuters / CNBC

• Oil Volatility Puts Energy Back in Play: Rising crude could pressure the broader market while supporting XLE and energy names. Watch CL against ES for confirmation, and avoid chasing vertical oil spikes unless donating to the market was already on today’s schedule. CNBC

• Chip Stocks Hit a Rocky Patch: Semis have shifted from market leadership to market mood swing. Track SMH, SOXX, AVGO, and MU around their 20- and 50-day moving averages, with prior June pivot lows serving as key support zones. Reuters

• S&P Breakout Holds—For Now: The index recently cleared its June downtrend and the 7,425–7,550 range, projecting a possible move toward 7,675 while support holds. Pullbacks near the 7,433 moving-average cluster may offer buy-the-dip setups, but only after price confirms it remembers how support works. Equity Clock

• CPI and Bank Earnings Load the Calendar: June CPI arrives Tuesday, Median CPI follows Wednesday, and major banks begin reporting this week. Expect sharp premarket moves, opening gaps, and the occasional economic-data candle designed primarily to humiliate anyone using a stop market order. CNBC / FRED

• Dow Strength and Nasdaq Weakness Signal Rotation: A firmer Dow alongside weaker S&P and Nasdaq futures favors relative-strength trades over broad-market guessing. Watch DIA versus QQQ and YM versus NQ, but only lean into the spread when sector breadth confirms the rotation. CNBC

Earnings We’re Watching

• AeroGrow International Inc. (AERO) - Monday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

The market’s job is not to behave consistently. Its job is to move—sometimes logically, sometimes violently, and occasionally like it just discovered caffeine and leverage at the same time.

Real consistency comes from the trader: following the same entry criteria, respecting the same risk limits, and executing the same process regardless of whether the last trade won, lost, or personally offended you.

You cannot control volatility, headlines, gaps, or sudden reversals. You can control preparation, position size, and whether one bad trade becomes five. The goal is not to make the market predictable. It is to make your response to it predictable.