The Trading Post | 07.14.26

July 14, 2026

Good morning,

US futures are slipping ahead of CPI, Iran tensions are lifting crude and cooling risk appetite, gold is bouncing as traders reassess inflation hedges, and funding markets are showing just enough strain to make leveraged traders check the exits. Classic: one inflation report, four asset classes, and absolutely no room for emotional improvisation.

Let’s jump in.

Pre-Market Performance

As of 07.13.26 market close.

Market News

  • Futures Dip Ahead of CPI as Inflation Anxiety Returns: Traders are bracing for a potentially hot inflation print and another round of higher-for-longer rate expectations. SPX, NQ, and YM could see sharp gap-and-go or gap-and-fade moves around pre-market ranges, opening-range breakouts, and key Fibonacci retracement levels. Reuters

  • Iran Tensions Lift Crude and Pressure Risk Assets: Rising geopolitical risk is supporting energy and defense names while weighing on semiconductors and broader technology. Watch XLE and OIH for continuation setups, while stretched SOXX and SMH components may offer short-the-rip opportunities. Reuters

  • Gold Rebounds as Traders Reposition for Inflation: Gold is bouncing from a two-week low as markets reassess real yields, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand. GLD and GC futures are primed for event-driven volatility, but the first post-CPI move may be sponsored by the Department of Fakeouts. Reuters

  • Funding Markets Flash Renewed Signs of Stress: Rising leverage and tighter short-term liquidity could magnify market reactions to CPI or rate headlines. Mega-cap names should offer cleaner liquidity, while thin, highly leveraged stocks remain excellent candidates for sudden and deeply unpleasant trap doors. Reuters

Earnings We’re Watching

  • Bank of America Corp. (BAC) - Tuesday (BMO) 

  • Citigroup, Inc. (C) - Tuesday (BMO) 

  • Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) - Tuesday (BMO) 

  • JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) - Tuesday (BMO) 

  • Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) - Tuesday (BMO) 

Trade Ideas

Apple Inc (AAPL), Amazon.com, Inc (AMZN), Boeing Company (BA), Baidu, Inc (BIDU)

SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), Home Depot, Inc (HD), iShares Russell 2000 Index Fun (IWM),
JP Morgan Chase & Co (JPM)

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM), Royal Caribbean Cruises, Ltd. (RCL), Visa Inc. (V)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

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Daily Moment of Zen

❝

You don't trade the markets; you trade your beliefs about the markets.

Van K. Tharp

Why It Matters:

The market is just price moving around. The story you attach to that movement is where things get expensive.

One trader sees a pullback and thinks, “healthy retracement.” Another sees the same chart and starts preparing for the financial apocalypse. Neither belief matters unless price confirms it. Unfortunately, the market does not accept strongly held opinions as collateral.

Every entry is based on a belief: that support will hold, momentum will continue, or resistance will reject price. Good traders test those beliefs against evidence and abandon them when the chart disagrees. Bad traders defend them like they’re arguing with strangers online.

Your job is not to be certain. It is to form a thesis, define what would invalidate it, and manage the trade accordingly. Beliefs are useful. Unquestioned beliefs are just positions waiting to become lessons.