The Trading Post | 07.15.26

Good morning,

Futures are mixed ahead of inflation data and bank earnings, oil is jumping as U.S.-Iran tensions flare, the dollar remains firm, and rate-sensitive sectors are bracing for another headline-driven session. Translation: inflation, geopolitics, and earnings are all reaching for the steering wheel at once.

Let’s jump in.

Pre-Market Performance

As of 07.14.26 market close.

Market News

• Futures Hover Ahead of Inflation Data and Bank Earnings: ES and NQ may remain choppy until the data hits. Mark the overnight highs, lows, and VWAP, then let the first clean post-release move prove itself before chasing anything wearing a breakout costume. Reuters

• Oil Jumps Roughly 2% as Middle East Risks Return: Watch XLE, oil services, and crude futures for relative strength, while airlines and other fuel-sensitive names could face pressure. Rising oil also keeps inflation expectations, Treasury yields, and the dollar firmly in play. Reuters

• Global Markets Lean Positive, but Inflation Still Runs the Show: Cooler data could spark a squeeze in technology, utilities, real estate, and small caps. Hotter data would likely favor energy and financials while reminding long-duration growth stocks that gravity remains undefeated. Reuters

• PPI and Empire State Manufacturing Data Hit the Tape: A meaningful surprise could create sharp moves in yields, banks, and index futures around the open. Avoid overcommitting before the release and watch whether the initial move holds above or below VWAP. MarketWatch

• Dollar Approaches a Critical Breakout Test: A stronger dollar could pressure commodities, multinational companies, and risk assets. A failed breakout may offer relief to metals, technology, and other rate-sensitive trades. Reuters

Earnings We’re Watching

• BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Cintas Corporation (CTAS) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - Wednesday (BMO)

• M&T Bank Corp (MTB) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Morgan Stanley (MS) - Wednesday (BMO)

• PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (PNC) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Progressive Corp. (PGR) - Wednesday (BMO)

• United Airlines (UAL) - Wednesday (AMC)

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

The market is an exceptionally convincing liar. It rewards a reckless trade just often enough to make recklessness feel like skill, then punishes a disciplined setup just often enough to make a good process feel broken.

That is how bad habits are built. Traders chase because chasing worked yesterday. They widen stops because the last trade eventually recovered. They double down because one heroic rescue convinced them risk management was optional.

The market’s favorite lesson is that outcomes matter more than decisions. They don’t.

A profitable mistake is still a mistake, and a well-managed loss can still be an excellent trade. Judge yourself by whether you followed the plan—not whether the market handed you a participation trophy afterward.