The Trading Post | 07.16.26

July 16, 2026

Good morning,

Futures are flat after a two-day rally, cooling inflation has lowered immediate rate-hike fears, big banks are reporting resilient business activity, and chip stocks are discovering that even AI occasionally needs a breather.

Let’s jump in.

Pre-Market Performance

As of 07.15.26 market close.

Market News

  • Futures Hit the Pause Button: Dow and S&P 500 futures are hovering near flat, while Nasdaq futures are slightly lower after two consecutive winning sessions. Expect early range-bound action around yesterday’s value area, with failed breaks of prior highs or lows offering potential fade setups in ES, NQ, and YM. Reuters

  • Inflation Finally Behaved—For Two Days: Cooler-than-expected CPI and PPI readings eased immediate inflation concerns and sharply reduced expectations for another rate hike. Favor growth and technology while yields remain contained, but keep an eye on energy prices before declaring inflation officially house-trained. Reuters

  • Fresh Data Could Disturb the Peace: Retail sales and jobless claims are next on the calendar, giving traders another look at whether the economy is cooling gracefully or simply running out of caffeine. Trade confirmed breaks of prior-session levels only when price, volume, and five-minute closes agree. Reuters

  • Chip Stocks Lose Momentum: Semiconductor names remain under pressure despite strong AI-related earnings, suggesting expectations may have finally become difficult enough to disappoint. Watch NQ and leading chip stocks for failed rebounds, lower highs, or support holds before assuming the AI trade has resumed its regularly scheduled ascent. Reuters

Earnings We’re Watching

  • Abbott (ABT) - Thursday (BMO)

  • Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG) - Thursday (BMO)

  • GE Aerospace (GE) - Thursday (BMO)

  • ManpowerGroup (MAN) - Thursday (BMO)

  • State Street Corp. (STT) - Thursday (BMO)

  • U.S. Bancorp (USB) - Thursday (BMO)

  • UnitedHealth Group, Inc. (UNH) - Thursday (BMO)

  • Abbott (ABT) - Thursday (BMO)

  • Alcoa, Inc. (AA) - Thursday (AMC)

  • Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) - Thursday (AMC)

Trade Ideas

Home Depot Inc (HD), Applovin Corporation (APP), Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL),
iShares Russell 2000 Index Fun (IWM)

AST SpaceMobile Inc (ASTS), Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD), Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE), International Business Machine (IBM)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

Get these ideas delivered to your inbox daily with Trade With Rob. It’s 100% free. Sign up here.

Daily Moment of Zen

❝

The market behaves much like an opponent who is trying to teach you to trade poorly.

Jack Schwager

Why It Matters:

The market is an elite-level bad influence. It rewards reckless trades just often enough to convince you that discipline is optional, then waits until you increase your size before collecting tuition.

A poor setup might work. A late entry might keep running. A broken rule might produce your biggest winner of the week. That does not make the decision intelligent—it makes the outcome dangerously persuasive. The market’s favorite lesson is teaching traders to confuse being profitable with being correct.

Your job is not to learn from every winning trade. It is to learn from the quality of the decision behind it. Otherwise, the market will happily train you to chase, overtrade, ignore stops, and call it “intuition”—right before intuition receives a margin call.