The Trading Post | 07.17.26

July 17, 2026

Good morning,

Chip stocks are getting sold, Netflix is down roughly 9%, Nasdaq futures are taking twice the damage of the S&P, solid earnings are being ignored, and oil is climbing as U.S.–Iran tensions return to the menu. Apparently, the AI trade was crowded. Shocking.

Let’s jump in.

Pre-Market Performance

As of 07.16.26 market close.

Market News

  • AI Trade Hits Turbulence: Semiconductors and AI bellwethers remain under heavy distribution as traders question whether massive capital spending will translate into equally massive profits—the narrative still sounds great, but the tape has filed an objection. Reuters

  • Netflix Gets Streamed: NFLX is down roughly 9% premarket after issuing weaker-than-expected third-quarter guidance, creating a sizable gap and an immediate test of dip-buyers’ courage. Reuters

  • Good News, Bad Tape: Strong earnings and positive economic data failed to offset technology weakness, reinforcing a classic “good news sold” environment across the broader market. Reuters

  • Sector Rotation Accelerates: UnitedHealth strengthened after raising its 2026 profit forecast while GE Aerospace slipped despite lifting its outlook, highlighting renewed demand for healthcare and continued sensitivity in industrials. Reuters

  • AI Earnings Face the Jury: Upcoming results from Alphabet and Intel will put AI infrastructure spending, semiconductor demand, and the profitability of the broader AI buildout back under the microscope. Reuters

  • Oil and Safe Havens Wake Up: Renewed U.S.–Iran hostilities are lifting crude toward one-month highs while supporting intermittent safe-haven demand for the dollar. Reuters

  • Rate Expectations Ease: Softer inflation data has reduced expectations for a near-term rate hike, leaving the dollar on track for a weekly decline and improving the backdrop for bonds and other long-duration assets. Reuters

Earnings We’re Watching

  • Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) - Friday (BMO)

  • Truist Financial Corporation (TFC) - Friday (BMO)

Trade Ideas

Arm Holdings plc (ARM), Broadcom, Inc (AVGO), Boeing Company (BA), Baidu, Inc (BIDU)

Dell Technologies (DELL), iShares Russell 2000 Index Fun (IWM), Marriott International (MAR), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM), Shopify Inc (SHOP), United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL), UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

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Daily Moment of Zen

❝

The real price of everything is the toil and trouble of acquiring it.

Howard Marks

Why It Matters:

The market charges in more than dollars. It collects payment in patience, preparation, missed opportunities, stopped-out trades, and the occasional lesson delivered directly to your ego.

Every trader wants the profitable setup. Fewer want the hours of chart review, disciplined position sizing, and emotional restraint required to recognize it—and then avoid ruining it.

The uncomfortable truth is that worthwhile results usually demand worthwhile effort. Not constant effort, mind you. Clicking buttons all day is not hard work; sometimes it is just anxiety wearing a trading headset.

Pay the price through preparation before the market collects it through losses.