The Trading Post | 07.21.26

Good morning,

Ceasefire hopes are pulling oil back below $90, futures are rebounding, Alphabet is preparing to test the AI trade, chip stocks are attempting to escape bear-market territory, and the S&P 500 remains trapped between earnings optimism and geopolitical chaos. Nothing complicated—just oil, war, AI, inflation, and several trillion dollars of expectations before breakfast.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 07.20.26 market close.

Market News

• Ceasefire Hopes Lift Futures: Renewed mediation efforts reportedly include a proposed 10-day ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, helping oil retreat from its recent high and pulling buyers back into equities. Hope is once again a tradable asset—just don’t confuse it with a binding agreement. Reuters

• Alphabet Takes Center Stage: Wall Street expects roughly $117 billion in quarterly revenue as traders examine Google Cloud growth, AI spending, margins, and whether the company’s enormous infrastructure bill is producing enormous results. Reuters

• Google Builds Gemini Into the Hardware: Alphabet gained after reports that Google is developing a server chip designed to run Gemini models more efficiently and relieve AI computing-capacity constraints. Apparently, putting AI everywhere now includes putting it directly into the furniture. Reuters

• Semis Attempt a Recovery: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recently entered a bear market after falling more than 20% from its June record, although it remains up roughly 66% this year. Translation: badly wounded, still expensive, and perfectly capable of producing a violent rebound. Reuters

• Oil Remains the Market’s Unofficial Central Banker: Brent traded near $89.70 as ceasefire optimism competed with fresh attacks and threats against regional shipping. A sustained move below $90 could cool inflation fears; another escalation could make that sentence age terribly before lunch. Reuters

Earnings We’re Watching

• 3M Company (MMM) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Ally Financial (ALLY) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW) - Tuesday (BMO)

• D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Danaher Corp. (DHR) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Equifax Inc. (EFX) - Tuesday (BMO)

• General Motors Corp. (GM) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Genuine Parts Company (GPC) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Halliburton Company (HAL) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Hasbro, Inc. (HAS) - Tuesday (BMO)

• KeyCorp (KEY) - Tuesday (BMO)

• MARSH (MRSH) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Novartis International AG (NVS) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Synchrony Financial (SYF) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Valmont Industries Inc. (VMI) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) - Tuesday (AMC)

• Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) - Tuesday (AMC)

• Chubb Corporation (CB) - Tuesday (AMC)

• EQT Corporation (EQT) - Tuesday (AMC)

• Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR) - Tuesday (AMC)

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

The market loves rules right up until there are enough of them to require a second rulebook explaining the first one.

Hayek’s point is that every layer of centralized planning reduces the individual’s freedom to adapt. For traders, that means government policy, regulation, tariffs, taxes, subsidies, and interest-rate decisions can reshape the playing field faster than any personal forecast can keep up.

You may have a perfectly reasonable plan for earnings, inflation, or oil—then policymakers change the incentives, and suddenly “reasonable” becomes an expensive adjective.

The lesson is not to ignore policy. It is to avoid building a trading strategy that requires policymakers to behave predictably. Plan your entries, define your risk, and remain flexible enough to adjust when the people making the rules decide the rules need more rules.