The Trading Post | 07.23.26

Good morning,

Alphabet’s AI spending spree is making investors question the bill, Tesla’s margins are back under the microscope, oil is flirting with $100, defense and industrial earnings are on deck, and the once-unified AI trade is beginning to look more like a dysfunctional group project.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 07.22.26 market close.

Market News

• Alphabet and Tesla rattle tech: Alphabet beat estimates but raised 2026 capital-spending guidance toward $205 billion, pressuring free cash flow, while Tesla’s profit miss renewed concerns over margins and growth. Expect elevated volatility across GOOG, TSLA, QQQ, and NQ as traders decide whether this is a dip—or an invoice. TheStreet

• Oil approaches $100 as Middle East tensions escalate: Supply concerns near the Strait of Hormuz are lifting crude and energy stocks while raising fresh inflation fears. Watch CL and XLE for pullback entries, but keep risk tight because geopolitical charts have a habit of ignoring your beautifully drawn trendlines. MarketWatch

• AI leadership begins to fracture: Hyperscalers are spending heavily on infrastructure while investors increasingly question which companies can convert that spending into actual profits. Relative-strength trades between chips, infrastructure providers, and cash-burning platforms may offer cleaner setups than simply buying anything with “AI” in the presentation. MarketWatch

• Stocks stall near the highs: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped as traders positioned ahead of major earnings while tariffs and rising energy prices kept risk appetite contained. Watch breadth closely—a failed push through resistance could trigger a quick unwind, while a clean breakout may force underexposed traders to chase. CNBC

• Volatility may finally have something to do: Earnings uncertainty, rising oil, tariff concerns, and geopolitical risk create a favorable backdrop for larger intraday ranges. Watch VIX, OVX, and the volatility term structure for signs that complacency is beginning to crack. The Star

Earnings We’re Watching

• Albertsons Companies, Inc. (ACI) - Thursday (BMO)

• Allegion plc (ALLE) - Thursday (BMO)

• American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) - Thursday (BMO)

• Ameriprise Financial Inc (AMP) - Thursday (BMO)

• Argenx (ARGX) - Thursday (BMO)

• Blackstone (BX) - Thursday (BMO)

• Cemex S.A.B. de C.V. (CX) - Thursday (BMO)

• Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF) - Thursday (BMO)

• Dover Corp. (DOV) - Thursday (BMO)

• Dow Chemical Co. (DOW) - Thursday (BMO)

• FirstService Corporation (FSV) - Thursday (BMO)

• Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, Inc. (FCX) - Thursday (BMO)

• Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) - Thursday (BMO)

• Honeywell Technologies (HON) - Thursday (BMO)

• Huntington Bancshares Incorporated (HBAN) - Thursday (BMO)

• Infosys Technologies Ltd. (INFY) - Thursday (BMO)

• Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) - Thursday (BMO)

• Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) - Thursday (BMO)

• Nokia Corp. (NOK) - Thursday (BMO)

• Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) - Thursday (BMO)

• Old Republic International Corp. (ORI) - Thursday (BMO)

• PG&E Corp. (PCG) - Thursday (BMO)

• Pool Corporation (POOL) - Thursday (BMO)

• Quest Diagnostics, Inc. (DGX) - Thursday (BMO)

• RELX (RELX) - Thursday (BMO)

• Roper Technologies, Inc. (ROP) - Thursday (BMO)

• RTX Corporation (RTX) - Thursday (BMO)

• Ryder System Inc. (R) - Thursday (BMO)

• Snap-On, Inc. (SNA) - Thursday (BMO)

• STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) - Thursday (BMO)

• T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS) - Thursday (BMO)

• Teck Resources Limited (TECK) - Thursday (BMO)

• Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) - Thursday (BMO)

• Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) - Thursday (BMO)

• Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) - Thursday (BMO)

• Boyd Gaming Corp. (BYD) - Thursday (AMC)

• Deckers Brands (DECK) - Thursday (AMC)

• Digital Realty Trust Inc (DLR) - Thursday (AMC)

• Edwards Lifesciences Corp. (EW) - Thursday (AMC)

• Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG) - Thursday (AMC)

  Intel Corp. (INTC) - Thursday (AMC)

• Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM) - Thursday (AMC)

• Ovintiv Inc. (OVV) - Thursday (AMC)

• SAP SE (SAP) - Thursday (AMC)

• Selective Insurance Group Inc. (SIGI) - Thursday (AMC)

• SkyWest, Inc. (SKYW) - Thursday (AMC)

• SS&C Technologies Holdings Inc (SSNC) - Thursday (AMC)

• World Kinect Corporation (WKC) - Thursday (AMC)

Trade Ideas

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