The Trading Post | 07.27.26

Good morning,

The US-Iran pause sent oil lower and equity futures higher, Big Tech and the Fed headline the quarter’s busiest week, Nvidia locked down a massive memory supply deal, investors are rotating out of expensive AI names, and earnings winners are serving up fresh momentum trades.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 07.24.26 market close.

Market News

• US-Iran Pause Sparks a Relief Rally: The weekend pause in hostilities removed some of the market’s oil, inflation, and geopolitical risk premium—at least until someone remembers how fragile ceasefires can be. Watch for gap-and-go setups in ES and NQ if buyers defend the opening range, while failed breakouts could quickly turn into gap fades. Reuters

• Oil and Volatility Get Deflated: Crude oil, energy stocks, and index volatility are giving back part of last week’s fear trade. Watch XLE and CL futures for failed bounces into resistance, while premium sellers may find opportunity if implied volatility continues collapsing faster than geopolitical common sense. Reuters

• Big Tech and the Fed Take Center Stage: Microsoft and Meta report Wednesday, followed by Apple and Amazon Thursday, while the Fed is expected to hold rates steady Wednesday. Traders should reduce oversized directional exposure ahead of the announcement and prepare for short-dated volatility in MSFT, META, AAPL, and AMZN. Yahoo Finance

• Nvidia Secures Its Memory Supply: Nvidia reportedly reached a roughly $500 billion supply agreement with SK Hynix, easing concerns that memory shortages could slow AI infrastructure growth. MU and SNDK remain relative-strength candidates, especially if semiconductor breadth improves and the SOX reclaims prior swing resistance. CNBC

• The Great AI Rotation Continues: Investors are selling recent AI-infrastructure winners and rotating toward energy and industrials, with CoreWeave, Nebius, and Bloom Energy each dropping more than 11%. Watch CRWV, NBIS, and BE for failed-bounce shorts while tracking XLI and XLE against XLK for confirmation that the rotation has actual legs. Benzinga

• ndustrials Are Priced Like Tech Stocks Now: Industrial valuations have climbed toward roughly 30 times earnings, proving that Wall Street will eventually turn anything into a crowded growth trade. Long setups in XLI remain viable while relative strength holds, but chasing extended industrial names at premium valuations may be an expensive way to discover that rotations also rotate. CNBC

• Earnings Winners Deliver Fresh Momentum: Tenet Healthcare surged more than 17% after strong results and raised guidance, while International Paper and Smurfit Westrock gained more than 11% on improved containerboard pricing. THC, IP, and SW are potential continuation trades on controlled pullbacks toward VWAP or prior resistance—not after they have already launched into low orbit. Yahoo Finance

• Economic Data Keeps the Fed’s Job Complicated: New-home sales rose 1.6% in June and the Services PMI reached an eight-month high of 53.6. The data supports economically sensitive sectors, but it also gives the Fed fewer reasons to sound dovish Wednesday. Watch rates, homebuilders, REITs, and consumer discretionary stocks for immediate reactions to any shift in policy language. Yahoo Finance

Earnings We’re Watching

• AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) - Monday (BMO)

• Baker Hughes (BKR) - Monday (BMO)

• Coca Cola Femsa S.A.B. De C.V. (KOF) - Monday (BMO)

• Amkor Technology, Inc. (AMKR) - Monday (AMC)

• Brown & Brown Inc. (BRO) - Monday (AMC)

• Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (CDNS) - Monday (AMC)

• Celestica, Inc. (CLS) - Monday (AMC)

• Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF) - Monday (AMC)

• Nucor Corp. (NUE) - Monday (AMC)

• Principal Financial Group, Inc. (PFG) - Monday (AMC)

• Sanmina Corporation (SANM) - Monday (AMC)

• Amkor Technology, Inc. (AMKR) - Monday (AMC)

• TFI International Inc. (TFII) - Monday (AMC)

• Universal Health Services Inc. (UHS) - Monday (AMC)

• Welltower Inc. (WELL) - Monday (AMC)

• Whirlpool Corp. (WHR) - Monday (AMC)

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

Trading has an impressive talent for making simple decisions feel like negotiations with the United Nations.

A setup appears, the plan is clear, and suddenly the mind produces seventeen reasons to hesitate. Then, once the trade moves without us, it becomes “impossible,” “unfair,” or—an old favorite—“manipulated.”

Seneca’s point is that difficulty often grows in the space between knowing what to do and actually doing it. In trading, that does not mean taking reckless bets or blindly clicking buttons in the name of courage. It means daring to follow a tested process: entering when the setup is valid, taking the stop when it is not, and accepting that uncertainty is the admission price.

The market rarely becomes easier while we wait to become fearless. Confidence usually arrives after disciplined action—not before it.

Dare to execute the plan. Just make sure the plan includes a stop.