The Trading Post | 07.28.26

Good morning,

Nvidia’s reported OpenAI financing talks rattled chip stocks, the Fed heads into Wednesday with unusually wide rate uncertainty, megacap earnings season hits full force, oil extended its post-ceasefire plunge, and the Dow reached another record while investor sentiment remained stuck in “Fear.” Markets are calm, confident, and emotionally unstable. So, business as usual.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 07.27.26 market close.

Market News

• Nvidia Financing Report Rattles Chip Stocks: Nvidia fell as much as 5% overnight following a report that it may provide approximately $250 billion in financing guarantees for OpenAI’s data-center expansion. The news revived concerns about circular AI financing after the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 2.2% Monday. Watch NVDA and the SOX for breakdown continuation, but consider defined-risk put spreads over naked shorts with megacap earnings approaching. Reuters

• Warsh’s First Fed Meeting Brings Rare Uncertainty: Markets are pricing roughly a 35%–40% probability of a surprise 25-basis-point hike at Wednesday’s 2 p.m. ET announcement, with dissent expected regardless of the outcome. Options premiums should remain elevated, making calendars and defined-risk SPX structures more attractive than fresh directional swing trades before the press conference. Reuters

• Megacap Earnings Week Arrives: Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Apple report this week as traders prepare for another round of AI-spending questions, guidance scrutiny, and overnight gaps large enough to make stop-loss orders feel decorative. Watch post-earnings reactions for gap-and-go or failed-breakout setups rather than guessing before the numbers. CNBC

• Oil Extends Its Ceasefire Slide: Brent dropped to approximately $87.55 per barrel while WTI slipped below $82 after Washington paused strikes on Iran and reported progress in negotiations. Energy remains under pressure, while lower fuel costs provide a potential tailwind for airlines, transports, and logistics companies. Watch crude futures for reversal candles if the diplomatic optimism begins developing commitment issues. Reuters

• Record Highs Meet Fearful Sentiment: The Dow gained 263 points Monday to close at a record 52,210, yet the Fear & Greed Index remained in the “Fear” zone near 40 while the VIX hovered around 17–18. That divergence is not automatically bearish, but it raises the odds of sharper reactions as Fed and earnings catalysts collide. Monitor index resistance and VIX for confirmation rather than shorting simply because the market looks suspiciously happy. Benzinga

Earnings We’re Watching

• American Tower Corp. (AMT) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Asbury Automotive Group Inc (ABG) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (AXTA) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Boeing Co. (BA) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Centene Corporation (CNC) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• CMS Energy Corp. (CMS) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Coca-Cola Company (KO) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Corning Inc. (GLW) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• DTE Energy Co. (DTE) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Ecolab Inc. (ECL) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A (FMX) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• GlaxoSmithKline plc (GSK) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Hubbell Incorporated (HUBB) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Illinois Tool Works, Inc. (ITW) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Incyte Corp. (INCY) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Invesco PLC (IVZ) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• IQVIA Holdings Inc. (IQV) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• PACCAR, Inc. (PCAR) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• PayPal (PYPL) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Pentair Inc. (PNR) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Polaris Inc. (PII) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Rithm Capital Corp (RITM) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Royal Philips (PHG) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• S&P Global (SPGI) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Sherwin-Williams Co. (SHW) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Textron, Inc. (TXT) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• TransUnion (TRU) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Xylem Inc. (XYL) - Tuesday (BMO) 

• Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) - Tuesday (AMC) 

• Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR) - Tuesday (AMC) 

• Axis Capital Holdings Ltd (AXS) - Tuesday (AMC) 

• Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR) - Tuesday (AMC) 

• CenterPoint Energy Inc. (CNP) - Tuesday (AMC) 

• Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) - Tuesday (AMC) 

• Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) - Tuesday (AMC) 

• FirstEnergy Corp. (FE) - Tuesday (AMC) 

• Ford Motor Company (F) - Tuesday (AMC) 

• Greif, Inc. (GEF) - Tuesday (AMC) 

• Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THG) - Tuesday (AMC) 

• KLA Corporation (KLAC) - Tuesday (AMC) 

• Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR) - Tuesday (AMC) 

• Logitech International S.A. (LOGI) - Tuesday (AMC) 

• Methanex Corp. (MEOH) - Tuesday (AMC) 

• Mondelez International Inc. (MDLZ) - Tuesday (AMC) NOV Inc. (NOV) - Tuesday (AMC) 

• NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) - Tuesday (AMC) 

• O-I Glass, Inc. (OI) - Tuesday (AMC) 

• Omnicom Group, Inc. (OMC) - Tuesday (AMC) 

• PPG Industries, Inc. (PPG) - Tuesday (AMC) 

• Seagate Technology plc (STX) - Tuesday (AMC) 

• Teradyne, Inc. (TER) - Tuesday (AMC) 

• Unum Group (UNM) - Tuesday (AMC) 

• Veralto Corporation (VLTO) - Tuesday (AMC) 

• Visa Inc (V) - Tuesday (AMC) 

• WM (WM) - Tuesday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

True—but plenty of traders have gone broke using that line to justify cutting every winner at the first sign of green.

Taking profits is smart. Taking them automatically is fear wearing a risk-management costume. The goal is not to squeeze every last dollar from a trade, but it is also not to grab lunch money while leaving the real move on the table.

Strong trading requires knowing the difference between protecting a gain and interrupting a good trade. Scale out, tighten the stop, and let price action decide whether the remaining position deserves more time.

Because nobody ever lost money taking a profit—but nobody built an exceptional year collecting pennies from trades that were trying to hand them dollars.