The Trading Post | 07.29.26

Good morning,

The Fed holds a poker face ahead of the rate announcement, oil jumped after renewed US-Iran hostilities, Microsoft and Meta face massive post-earnings moves, the global chip selloff deepened, and Ford rallied after raising its full-year outlook.

Let’s jump in.

Pre-Market Performance

As of 07.28.26 market close.

Market News

• FOMC and Rate Announcement Today as Warsh preaches hawkish patience: Warsh warns that inflation remains above target despite solid economic growth. Treasury yields moved higher while the S&P 500 finished nearly flat ahead of the announcement. Reuters

• Oil spikes as Iran launches missiles at US forces: Brent crude climbed more than 3% toward $87 per barrel after Iran fired ballistic missiles at US forces in the Middle East, prompting retaliatory strikes against Iran-aligned targets in Iraq. Because apparently crude oil needed another geopolitical energy drink. CNBC

• Microsoft and Meta face enormous earnings-implied moves: Options markets are pricing a potential $190 billion market-value swing for Microsoft and a 7.8% move for Meta as investors scrutinize whether massive AI spending is producing equally massive results. Reuters

• Asian AI rout drags US chip stocks lower: Samsung and SK Hynix plunged overnight as AI-financing concerns and growing Chinese competition pressured semiconductor stocks globally, dragging Micron, AMD, Intel, and Applied Materials lower before the US open. Bloomberg

• Ford extends its rally after raising guidance: Ford shares gained more than 6% after beating second-quarter earnings estimates and lifting its full-year adjusted EBIT forecast to $10–$11 billion, following a similar guidance increase from General Motors. MarketWatch

Earnings We’re Watching

• AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Amphenol Corp. (APH) - Wednesday (BMO)

• AON plc (AON) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Arcbest Corp. (ARCB) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Avantor, Inc. (AVTR) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Bausch + Lomb Corporation (BLCO) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Biogen Inc. (BIIB) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Boston Scientific Corporation (BSX) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Bunge Ltd. (BG) - Wednesday (BMO)

• CBRE Group, Inc. (CBRE) - Wednesday (BMO)

• CGI Group Inc. Subordinated (GIB) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Chef's Warehouse, Inc. (CHEF) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Clean Harbors, Inc. (CLH) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. (CTSH) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Constellium N.V. (CSTM) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Entergy Corp. (ETR) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Flex (FLEX) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Fortive Corporation (FTV) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) - Wednesday (BMO)

• GE HealthCare (GEHC) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Generac Holdings Inc (GNRC) - Wednesday (BMO)

• General Dynamics Corp. (GD) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Humana, Inc. (HUM) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Johnson Controls, Inc. (JCI) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Lennox International, Inc. (LII) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Lithia & Driveway (LAD) - Wednesday (BMO)

• MVI Homes (MHO) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Masco Corp. (MAS) - Wednesday (BMO)

• New Oriental Education and Technology Group Inc. (EDU) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. (ODFL) - Wednesday (BMO)

• OneMain Holdings, Inc. (OMF) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Option Care Health, Inc. (OPCH) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Parsons Corporation (PSN) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Procter & Gamble. (PG) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Silgan Holdings, Inc. (SLGN) - Wednesday (BMO)

• SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. (SITE) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) - Wednesday (BMO)

• SoFi (SOFI) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, Ltd (TEVA) - Wednesday (BMO)

• UBS AG (UBS) - Wednesday (BMO)

• United Microelectronics Corp. (UMC) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT) - Wednesday (BMO)

• VF Corp. (VFC) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Watsco, Inc. (WSO) - Wednesday (BMO)

• WEC Energy Group Inc. (WEC) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Agnico-Eagle Mines, Ltd (AEM) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) - Wednesday (AMC)

• American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Antero Resources Corp (AR) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Arm Holdings plc (ARM) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Bausch Health Companies Inc. (BHC) - Wednesday (AMC)

• C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc. (CHRW) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Camping World Holdings, Inc. (CHW) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Carlisle Companies, Inc. (CSL) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Carvana Co. (CVNA) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) - Wednesday (AMC)

• CVR Energy, Inc. (CVI) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Electronic Arts Inc (EA) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Equinix, Inc. (EQIX) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Everest Group, Ltd. (EG) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Flowserve Corporation (FLS) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Fortinet (FTNT) - Wednesday (AMC)

• GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Insperity, Inc. (NSP) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Kinross Gold Corp. (KGC) - Wednesday (AMC)

• L3Harris Technologies (LHX) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Lam Research Corp. (LRCX) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) - Wednesday (AMC)

• MGM Resorts International (MGM) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) - Wednesday (AMC)

• O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Pilgrim’s Pride Corp. (PPC) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Plexus Corp. (PLXS) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Public Storage, Inc. (PSA) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) - Wednesday (AMC)

• RYERSON HOLDING (RYZ) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Service Corporation International (SCI) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Tetra Tech Inc. (TTEK) - Wednesday (AMC)

• UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Ventas, Inc. (VTR) - Wednesday (AMC)

• VICI Properties Inc. (VICI) - Wednesday (AMC)

• West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. (WFG) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Woodward, Inc. (WWD) - Wednesday (AMC)

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

Trading lives in the uncomfortable space between reckless action and permanent hesitation. Enter without a plan, and you’re gambling with better software. Wait forever for absolute certainty, and the market will complete the move while you’re still adjusting indicators.

The goal is not constant action. It is decisive action backed by preparation: define the setup, identify the risk, establish the exit, and then execute when the market confirms your thesis. Thinking without acting produces no return. Acting without thinking usually produces a valuable lesson—charged directly to your brokerage account.