The Trading Post | 07.30.26

Good morning,

The Fed delivered a hawkish hold, long-term Treasury yields surged to a 19-year high, META dragged the Nasdaq into correction territory, MSFT rallied on strong Azure growth, AMZN and AAPL report after the bell, and renewed US-Iran tensions sent oil prices higher. Just another quiet Thursday on Wall Street.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 07.29.26 market close.

Market News

• Fed delivers a hawkish hold as three officials push for a rate hike: The FOMC held rates at 3.50%–3.75% in a 9–3 vote, while Chair Kevin Warsh offered little forward guidance. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed toward 5.20%, its highest level in roughly 19 years. Rate-sensitive groups such as homebuilders, REITs, and regional banks remain vulnerable, while TLT may face additional pressure. Reuters

• Nasdaq enters correction territory as META’s AI spending alarms investors: META dropped roughly 7%–10% after quarterly free cash flow collapsed 91% year over year as AI capital spending ballooned. SMH and SOXX also fell around 5%, proving that apparently artificial intelligence still requires very real money. Elevated volatility favors defined-risk put spreads or patience for a failed gap-fill attempt. CNBC

• Microsoft surges as Azure growth clears the increasingly expensive AI bar: MSFT jumped roughly 8% after Azure revenue topped $100 billion, cloud growth reached 43%, and management delivered more restrained capital-spending guidance than investors feared. Relative strength could support a continuation trade above the post-earnings range, particularly while weaker semiconductor names remain under pressure. Yahoo Finance

• Oil rallies as US forces strike Iranian targets again: Brent crude approached $93 while WTI climbed toward $85 as renewed military action increased concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. The move supports CL, XLE, XOM, and CVX, but also adds another inflation headache ahead of Core PCE. Because apparently the bond market needed more encouragement. CNBC

• Long-end yields and oil prices create an awkward inflation cocktail: Rising energy prices and a steepening yield curve could reinforce expectations for tighter Fed policy. Watch the reaction in TLT, XHB, IYR, XLF, and rate-sensitive growth stocks following the PCE release. Reuters

Earnings We’re Watching

• ADT Corporation (ADT) - Thursday (BMO)

• AGCO Corporation (AGCO) - Thursday (BMO)

• Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. (APD) - Thursday (BMO)

• Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc (ALNY) - Thursday (BMO)

• Altria Group Inc (MO) - Thursday (BMO)

• Ambev S.A. (ABEV) - Thursday (BMO)

• American Electric Power Company, Inc. (AEP) - Thursday (BMO)

• Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) - Thursday (BMO)

• APi Group Corporation (APG) - Thursday (BMO)

• Arcelor Mittal (MT) - Thursday (BMO)

• Avery Dennison Corp. (AVY) - Thursday (BMO)

• Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) - Thursday (BMO)

• Baxter International, Inc. (BAX) - Thursday (BMO)

• Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) - Thursday (BMO)

• Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P (BIP) - Thursday (BMO)

• Brunswick Corporation (BC) - Thursday (BMO)

• Builders FirstSource Inc (BLDR) - Thursday (BMO)

• CIGNA Corp. (CI) - Thursday (BMO)

• Cinemark Inc (CNK) - Thursday (BMO)

• Colliers International Group Inc. (CIGI) - Thursday (BMO)

• CHR (CHR) - Thursday (BMO)

• Crocs Inc. (CROX) - Thursday (BMO)

• Darling Ingredients Inc. (DAR) - Thursday (BMO)

• EMCOR Group Inc. (EME) - Thursday (BMO)

• Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD) - Thursday (BMO)

• Euronet Worldwide Inc. (EEFT) - Thursday (BMO)

• Exelon Corp. (EXC) - Thursday (BMO)

• Ferrari N.V. (RACE) - Thursday (BMO)

• First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG) - Thursday (BMO)

• Gildan Activewear Inc. (GIL) - Thursday (BMO)

• Granite Construction Inc. (GVA) - Thursday (BMO)

• Group 1 Automotive Inc. (GPI) - Thursday (BMO)

• Hershey Company (HSY) - Thursday (BMO)

• Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) - Thursday (BMO)

• HNI Corporation (HNI) - Thursday (BMO)

• Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) - Thursday (BMO)

• Hyatt Hotels Corp (H) - Thursday (BMO)

• IntercontinentalExchange Inc (ICE) - Thursday (BMO)

• International Paper Co. (IP) - Thursday (BMO)

• Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated (JLL) - Thursday (BMO)

• KBR Inc (KBR) - Thursday (BMO)

• KKR & Co. L.P. (KKR) - Thursday (BMO)

• Laboratory Corp. Of America Holdings (LH) - Thursday (BMO)

• Lincoln Electric Holdings Inc. (LECO) - Thursday (BMO)

• Lincoln National Corp. (LNC) - Thursday (BMO)

• LKQ Corp. (LKQ) - Thursday (BMO)

• Martin Marietta Materials Inc. (MLM) - Thursday (BMO)

• Mastercard Inc (MA) - Thursday (BMO)

• NextDecade Corporation. (NEXT) - Thursday (BMO)

• Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) - Thursday (BMO)

• PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) - Thursday (BMO)

• Quanta Services, Inc. (PWR) - Thursday (BMO)

• Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (REGN) - Thursday (BMO)

• Sanofi (SNY) - Thursday (BMO)

• Shell plc (SHEL) - Thursday (BMO)

• SiriusXM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) - Thursday (BMO)

• Solstice Advanced Materials, Inc. (SOLS) - Thursday (BMO)

• Sonic Automotive Inc. (SAH) - Thursday (BMO)

• Southern Company (SO) - Thursday (BMO)

• Stellantis N.V. (STLA) - Thursday (BMO)

• TC Energy Corporation (TRP) - Thursday (BMO)

• TechnipFMC (FTI) - Thursday (BMO)

• Trane Technologies plc (TT) - Thursday (BMO)

• Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) - Thursday (BMO)

• Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) - Thursday (BMO)

• Wesco International (WCC) - Thursday (BMO)

• Willis Towers Watson (WTW) - Thursday (BMO)

• XCEL Energy, Inc. (XEL) - Thursday (BMO)

• Xerox Corp. (XRX) - Thursday (BMO)

• XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) - Thursday (BMO)

• Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) - Thursday (BMO)

• Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM) - Thursday (BMO)

• Alignment Healthcare, Inc. (ALHC) - Thursday (AMC)

• Alliant Energy, Inc. (LNT) - Thursday (AMC)

• Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) - Thursday (AMC)

• Ameren Corp. (AEE) - Thursday (AMC)

• Apple, Inc. (AAPL) - Thursday (AMC)

• AptarGroup Inc. (ATR) - Thursday (AMC)

• Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) - Thursday (AMC)

• Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) - Thursday (AMC)

• Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) - Thursday (AMC)

• DexCom Inc (DXCM) - Thursday (AMC)

• DXC Technology Company (DXC) - Thursday (AMC)

• Eastman Chemical Company (EMN) - Thursday (AMC)

• Edison International, Inc. (EIX) - Thursday (AMC)

• Erie Indemnity Co. (ERIE) - Thursday (AMC)

• Eversource Energy (ES) - Thursday (AMC)

• First Solar Inc (FSLR) - Thursday (AMC)

• Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) - Thursday (AMC)

• GoDaddy Inc. (GDDY) - Thursday (AMC)

• Huntsman Corp (HUN) - Thursday (AMC)

• Illumina Inc. (ILMN) - Thursday (AMC)

• Ingersoll-Rand Co. (IR) - Thursday (AMC)

• Ingram Micro Holding Corporation (INGM) - Thursday (AMC)

• Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV) - Thursday (AMC)

• LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA) - Thursday (AMC)

• MasTec Inc. (MTZ) - Thursday (AMC)

• Mettler-Toledo International Inc. (MTD) - Thursday (AMC)

• Mohawk Industries Inc. (MHK) - Thursday (AMC)

• Olin Corporation (OLN) - Thursday (AMC)

• Pembina Pipeline Corporation (PBA) - Thursday (AMC)

• Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) - Thursday (AMC)

• Roblox Corporation (RBLX) - Thursday (AMC)

• Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR) - Thursday (AMC)

• Sony Group Corporation (SONY) - Thursday (AMC)

• Stryker Corp. (SYK) - Thursday (AMC)

• Western Union Company (WU) - Thursday (AMC)

• Weyerhaeuser Co. (WY) - Thursday (AMC)

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

Traders love giving stocks personalities. One is a “great company.” Another is “garbage.” A third is apparently a “once-in-a-generation opportunity,” usually moments before it becomes a once-in-a-generation tax deduction.

The market does not care about our labels. A brilliant company can be a terrible trade when its stock is falling, while a questionable business can produce an excellent setup when price, volume, and momentum are moving higher.

The lesson is painfully simple: trade what the stock is doing, not what you believe it deserves to be doing. Fundamentals may explain the story, but price tells you whether anyone is currently buying it.

Good companies can fall. Bad companies can rally. Your portfolio is graded on the direction, not the character development.