The Trading Post | 07.31.26

Good morning,

Microsoft added a record $450 billion in market value, Amazon surged on accelerating cloud growth, Apple sank on a disappointing outlook, a leveraged AI fund dumped roughly $16 billion in holdings, and oil eased as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz recovered.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 07.30.26 market close.

Market News

• Microsoft ignites a historic AI rebound: Shares surged roughly 15%–16% after Azure growth crushed expectations, producing the largest one-day market-cap gain in Wall Street history. The SOX jumped more than 8%, led by Micron, SanDisk, AMD, and Intel. Watch whether SMH and SOXX hold above Thursday’s breakout candle; a move back below Wednesday’s lows would turn the celebration into a very expensive bull trap. CNBC

• Amazon jumps while Apple slides: AWS revenue accelerated 37%, sending Amazon sharply higher, while Apple fell after issuing softer-than-expected revenue guidance tied to memory-chip and supply constraints. The cleaner relative-strength setup favors AMZN above its opening range, while weakness in AAPL may be better approached with defined-risk put spreads than heroic naked shorts. CNBC

• A crowded AI trade meets the margin clerk: Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness fund reportedly sold most of its roughly $16 billion public-equity portfolio to Citadel after margin calls hammered its leveraged AI positions. Nebius, SanDisk, CoreWeave, and Micron could remain unusually volatile as the market digests the liquidation. Translation: the stocks may recover before everyone’s nervous system does. Reuters

• Oil falls as Hormuz traffic improves: Brent eased toward $87–$88 and WTI slipped near $82 as tanker activity recovered to roughly 30%–35% of prewar levels. A break beneath the week’s low could pressure XLE, XOM, and CVX, but fresh escalation headlines could reverse the move instantly. Naked weekend shorts remain an excellent way to discover whether stress burns calories. Reuters

• Inflation cools, but the Fed remains divided: Core PCE increased just 0.1% month over month, while second-quarter GDP growth slowed to 1.5%. Traders now turn to consumer sentiment and ISM Manufacturing for confirmation that softer growth can coexist with contained inflation. Watch TLT and the 10-year yield; weaker data could reinforce the Goldilocks bid, while a hot PMI would revive the higher-for-longer headache. Saxo

Earnings We’re Watching

• AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) - Friday (BMO)

• Ares Management LP (ARES) - Friday (BMO)

• AutoNation Inc. (AN) - Friday (BMO)

• Banco Santander, S.A. (SAN) - Friday (BMO)

• BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG) - Friday (BMO)

• Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP) - Friday (BMO)

• Chevron Corporation (CVX) - Friday (BMO)

• Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD) - Friday (BMO)

• Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL) - Friday (BMO)

• Dominion Energy, Inc. (D) - Friday (BMO)

• Eaton Corp. (ETN) - Friday (BMO)

• Enbridge, Inc. (ENB) - Friday (BMO)

• Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX) - Friday (BMO)

• Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) - Friday (BMO)

• Fortis Inc. (FTS) - Friday (BMO)

• Franklin Resources Inc. (BEN) - Friday (BMO)

• Lear Corp. (LEA) - Friday (BMO)

• Linde plc (LIN) - Friday (BMO)

• LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) - Friday (BMO)

• Magna Internationall Inc. (MGA) - Friday (BMO)

• Newell Brands Inc. (NWL) - Friday (BMO)

• nVent Electric plc (NVT) - Friday (BMO)

• T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW) - Friday (BMO)

• TransAlta Corporation (TAC) - Friday (BMO)

• VEON Ltd. (VEON) - Friday (BMO)

Trade Ideas

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

Get these ideas delivered to your inbox daily with Trade With Rob. It’s 100% free. Sign up here.

Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

The market has no obligation to respect your thesis, your indicators, or the beautifully color-coded lines on your chart. Conditions change, leadership rotates, breakouts fail, and yesterday’s perfect setup can become today’s liquidity donation.

Flexibility does not mean abandoning discipline or changing your plan every time a candle twitches. It means responding to evidence instead of defending an opinion. Strong traders adjust their position, reduce risk, reverse direction, or simply step aside when the market proves them wrong.

The inflexible trader wants to be right. The flexible trader wants to remain solvent.

Because in trading, stubbornness is just conviction wearing an expensive disguise.