The Trading Post | 08.03.26

August 03, 2026

Good morning,

Oil prices plunged as the U.S. backed away from an Iran strike, the U.S. and Japan launched their first coordinated yen intervention in 15 years, Amazon’s earnings rally kept tech moving higher, and Palantir entered the earnings spotlight with an 11%–12% move priced in.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 07.31.26 market close.

Market News

  • Oil’s war premium evaporates: WTI briefly fell more than 9% and Brent dropped over 7% after President Trump canceled a planned Iran strike and reopened negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC+ added pressure by approving another 188,000-barrel-per-day production increase for September. A confirmed break below WTI’s $78 support could target $76, though one hostile headline could reverse the entire move before lunch. Reuters | CNBC

  • The yen intervention returns: The U.S. and Japan conducted their first coordinated yen-buying operation in 15 years, pushing USD/JPY down from roughly 164 toward 157–158. A sustained move below 157 could accelerate the unwind of crowded carry trades and pressure leveraged global risk positions. CNBC | Al Jazeera

  • Asian chips flash a warning: South Korea’s Kospi fell more than 4%, while Samsung and SK Hynix dropped over 7% despite strong earnings. The selloff suggests currency volatility may be forcing investors to reduce crowded AI and semiconductor exposure. Watch SMH, SOXX, and SOXL closely for any spillover into U.S. trading. Business Times

  • Amazon keeps the AI rally alive: Amazon surged roughly 15.6% following strong cloud growth, helping lift the Nasdaq 1% on Friday. Alphabet gained 7.1%, while Apple fell 7.1% after issuing a softer revenue outlook. The AI trade remains healthy, but increasingly selective—apparently, simply owning a large technology company is no longer considered a strategy. Trading Economics | Barron’s

Earnings We’re Watching

  • Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) - Monday (BMO)

  • Marriott International Inc. (MAR) - Monday (BMO)

  • Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) - Monday (AMC)

  • Whirlpool Corp. (WHR) - Monday (AMC)

  • Clorox Co. (CLX) - Monday (AMC)

  • Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) - Monday (AMC)

  • Snap Inc. (SNAP) - Monday (AMC)

Trade Ideas

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc (AAOI), Amazon.com, Inc (AMZN), Booking Holdings, Inc (BKNG), SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)

Robinhood Markets, Inc (HOOD), Okta Inc (OKTA), QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM),
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

Get these ideas delivered to your inbox daily with Trade With Rob. It’s 100% free. Sign up here.

Daily Moment of Zen

❝

The problem with most people who play the market is that they are not flexible.

Martin Zweig

Why It Matters:

The market does not care about your forecast, your favorite indicator, or the beautifully color-coded thesis you built before breakfast. When price action changes, good traders adjust. Bad traders start negotiating with the chart.

Flexibility does not mean abandoning your strategy every time a candle turns red. It means recognizing when the evidence has changed—then adjusting your bias, position size, stop, or timeframe accordingly.

The goal is not to prove you were right. The goal is to avoid staying wrong long enough for the market to send you an expensive receipt.