The Trading Post | 08.04.26

Good morning,

The Dow closed at another record, Big Tech dragged the Nasdaq sharply higher, AMD heads into a high-stakes earnings report, Palantir is attempting to turn an earnings gap into a victory lap, oil remains trapped between diplomacy and disruption, and tariff litigation adds another wrinkle ahead of key labor data.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 08.03.26 market close.

Market News

• Dow closes at a record as Big Tech retakes control: Easing US-Iran tensions helped the Dow reach 53,178.41, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.48% and 2.13%, respectively. Reuters

• Mega-cap technology provides the horsepower: Microsoft rose 4.9%, Meta gained 6.7%, and Alphabet climbed 5.2%, while Apple was the lone Magnificent Seven laggard at roughly negative 0.5%. Barron’s

• Amazon joins the $3 trillion club: Amazon crossed the milestone for the first time as renewed AI optimism and accelerating AWS growth kept buyers firmly in control. The Business Times

• The trading lesson: Watch AMZN, MSFT, META, and GOOGL for continued relative strength, because weakening leadership in those names would make index continuation considerably less convincing. Saxo Bank

• Oil attempts to stabilize after Monday’s collapse: WTI and Brent initially moved higher Tuesday after plunging roughly 7% Monday as traders weighed hopes for a US-Iran de-escalation agreement. MarketWatch

• Hormuz keeps the headline premium alive: A vessel near Oman reportedly suffered damage from an unknown projectile, reminding traders that crude remains one breaking-news alert away from another personality change. MarketWatch

• Crude remains a headline-driven trade: Failed rebounds below $84 favor bearish setups, while a confirmed high-volume breakout above that level could bring momentum buyers back into CL and XLE. MarketWatch

• States challenge the administration’s newest tariffs: Twenty-five Democratic-led states sued the Trump administration over Section 301 tariffs covering approximately 60 trading partners. Reuters

• Tariff uncertainty creates another volatility catalyst: Industrial, retail, and automotive stocks could see sharp headline-driven reactions as the case develops, although traders should demand follow-through volume before treating every legal headline like the second coming of Smoot-Hawley. Reuters

• JOLTS arrives ahead of Friday’s payroll report: The Bureau of Labor Statistics scheduled the June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for 10:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday, August 4. BLS

• Rates remain the primary trading angle: A stronger openings number could support Treasury yields and the dollar, while a softer report may strengthen expectations for September easing heading into Friday’s employment report. BLS

Earnings We’re Watching

• BP p.l.c (BP) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Progressive Corp. (PGR) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT) - Tuesday (BMO)

• HSBC Holdings plc (HSBC) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Pfizer, Inc. (PFE) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) - Tuesday (AMC)

• Sunoco, Inc. (SUN) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Amgen, Inc. (AMGN) - Tuesday (AMC)

• Cummins, Inc. (CMI) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Duke Energy Corp. (DUK) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) - Tuesday (AMC)

• Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) - Tuesday (AMC)

• Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Emerson Electric Co. (EMR) - Tuesday (AMC)

• Kimberly-Clark Corp. (KMB) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc. (PEG) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Wynn Resorts ltd (WYNN) - Tuesday (AMC)

• DuPont (DD) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Pinterest, Inc. (PINS) - Tuesday (AMC)

• Mattel, Inc. (MAT) - Tuesday (AMC)

Trade Ideas

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

Get these ideas delivered to your inbox daily with Trade With Rob. It’s 100% free. Sign up here.

Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

A loss is not proof that your strategy is broken, your chart betrayed you, or the market has developed a personal vendetta. It is simply the cost of discovering that the trade did not work.

The real danger begins when a trader refuses to accept that information. A manageable loss becomes a “temporary pullback,” then a “long-term investment,” and eventually an unwanted lesson in portfolio archaeology.

Capital preservation does not require avoiding every loss. That is impossible. It requires keeping each loss small enough that you still have money—and emotional stability—available for the next legitimate opportunity.

Good traders are wrong regularly. They just refuse to stay wrong expensively.