The Trading Post | 08.05.26

Good morning,

Private hiring slowed sharply in July, SpaceX stumbled after its first post-IPO earnings report, AMD and Arista landed on opposite sides of the AI trade, Disney and Booking rallied while Uber slipped, and the S&P 500 closed above 7,700 for the first time.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 08.04.26 market close.

Market News

Market News

• Private hiring cools sharply: ADP reported just 44,000 private-sector jobs added in July, missing the 75,000 consensus and slowing substantially from June’s 95,000 gain. Nearly all the growth came from healthcare, suggesting the broader labor market may be losing momentum rather than merely taking a well-earned summer nap. CNBC

• Rate expectations lean more dovish: A softer employment print strengthens the argument for lower rates while reducing the odds of another hike. Watch the 10-year Treasury yield and U.S. dollar for continued weakness, particularly if traders begin positioning aggressively for Fed accommodation.

• Friday’s payroll report remains the deciding vote: ADP may influence the opening move, but the official nonfarm payroll report will determine whether the labor slowdown is real or merely another economic head fake. Traders may want to keep rates-sensitive positions smaller until Friday provides confirmation.

• S&P 500 closes above 7,700: The index finished above 7,700 for the first time, extending a rally supported by better-than-expected corporate results. More than 84% of S&P 500 companies have beaten second-quarter earnings estimates so far, giving bulls something more substantial than optimism and expensive coffee. Yahoo Finance

• The breakout remains intact above 7,620: The prior June high near 7,620 remains the key technical line separating a healthy breakout from a possible failed move. Holding above that level supports buying controlled pullbacks; a decisive break below it would increase the case for hedges and short-term put exposure.

• Sentiment has not reached full-blown euphoria: Retail sentiment toward SPY has only recently moved to neutral, while QQQ sentiment shifted from bearish to bullish. That suggests some investors are still watching the rally from the sidewalk rather than chasing it into traffic, potentially leaving room for further upside if dips continue to attract buyers.

• The AI trade is becoming more selective: AMD’s continued weakness and Arista Networks’ sharp rally show investors are differentiating between companies rather than buying anything capable of using the phrase “AI infrastructure” in a presentation. Relative-strength trades may offer cleaner setups than broad semiconductor or technology ETF exposure. MarketWatch

Earnings We’re Watching

• Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) - Wednesday (BMO)

• McKesson Corp. (MCK) - Wednesday (AMC)

• CVS Health (CVS) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Walt Disney Co (DIS) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Metlife Inc. (MET) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Allstate Corp. (ALL) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Block, Inc. (XYZ) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) - Wednesday (BMO)

• DoorDash, Inc. (DASH) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (GT) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Expedia, Inc. (EXPE) - Wednesday (AMC)

• FNF Group (FNF) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Western Digital Corp. (WDC) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Shopify Inc. (SHOP) - Wednesday (BMO)

• eBay, Inc. (EBAY) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Owens Corning Inc (OC) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Cushman & Wakefield (CWK) - Wednesday (BMO)

• U-Haul Holding Company (UHAL) - Wednesday (AMC

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

Every trade is an exchange: risk for potential reward, certainty for opportunity, and occasionally hard-earned capital for a very expensive lesson in humility.

The market turns everyone into a merchant, but successful traders understand that being busy is not the same as doing good business. You are not required to accept every setup the market offers. Your job is to evaluate the merchandise, negotiate the price, and walk away when the deal smells suspiciously like FOMO wearing a nice suit.

Good trading is not about constantly buying and selling. It is about making exchanges where the potential reward justifies the risk—and politely declining the market’s many limited-time offers to ruin your afternoon.