The Trading Post | 08.06.26

Good morning,

Memory stocks are getting punished, AMD discovered that “better than expected” is occasionally still disappointing, the Dow is setting records while Nasdaq futures lag, SpaceX faces a massive lockup expiration, and oil is trading every Strait of Hormuz headline like it has commitment issues.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 08.05.26 market close.

Market News

• Dow Leads While Tech Lags: Dow futures extended their record run while Nasdaq-100 futures slipped under semiconductor pressure. The divergence favors industrials, financials, and other value pockets until chip selling stabilizes. Watch YM versus NQ for confirmation that this rotation has actual legs. Yahoo Finance

• SpaceX Lockup Floods the Launchpad: Roughly 911.5 million SPCX shares become eligible for sale today, potentially lifting the publicly available float from 4.9% to 11.8%. Watch the $100 level—a clean break could invite another wave of selling, while a hold may trigger a short-covering bounce. Gravity remains undefeated. Yahoo Finance

• Oil Whipsaws on Hormuz Deal Talk: Brent slipped toward $79 and WTI traded near $74.69 as Iran-Oman negotiations raised hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen. A confirmed agreement would favor fading crude rallies, while any diplomatic setback could put the geopolitical premium back faster than traders can say “headline risk.” CNBC

• Gold Holds Its Safe-Haven Bid: Gold remains near multi-week highs despite improving Hormuz headlines. Watch recent support in GC—a diplomatic breakthrough could weaken safe-haven demand, but continued uncertainty keeps buyers lurking beneath the market. CNBC

Earnings We’re Watching

• ConocoPhillips (COP) - Thursday (BMO)

• Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD) - Thursday (BMO)

• American International Group, Inc. (AIG) - Thursday (AMC)

• Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) - Thursday (BMO)

• Consolidated Edison Inc. (ED) - Thursday (AMC)

• Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) - Thursday (AMC)

• Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) - Thursday (AMC)

• Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. (HTZ) - Thursday (BMO)

• PENN Entertainment, Inc. (PENN) - Thursday (BMO)

• Lyft, Inc. (LYFT) - Thursday (AMC)

• Texas Roadhouse Inc. (TXRH) - Thursday (AMC)

• Atlassian Corporation Plc (TEAM) - Thursday (AMC)

• Versant Corp. (VSNT) - Thursday (BMO)

• DraftKings Inc. (DKNG) - Thursday (AMC)

• Twilio, Inc. (TWLO) - Thursday (AMC)

• Roku Inc (ROKU) - Thursday (AMC)

• Datadog, Inc. (DDOG) - Thursday (BMO)

• Instacart (CART) - Thursday (AMC)

Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

Markets are a nonstop argument over who gets to define “best.”

The bulls believe higher prices are best. The bears believe lower prices are overdue. Analysts have twelve-month targets, economists have spreadsheets, and traders have a blinking chart that routinely humiliates all of them before lunch.

The danger begins when we assume someone else must know better—the financial media, a famous investor, an analyst with a confident television voice, or the anonymous stranger posting rocket emojis beneath a stock chart. They may have more information. They may also have different objectives, time horizons, and risk tolerances. Their “best” trade could be your expedited route to a margin call.

Successful traders decide for themselves, using a defined process rather than borrowed conviction. They determine what qualifies as a valid setup, how much capital to risk, where the trade is wrong, and when to leave. The market still makes the final decision about price, of course. It enjoys having veto power.

The lesson is not that every decision will be correct. It is that responsibility cannot be outsourced. The moment someone else decides what is best for your account, you are no longer trading a plan—you are renting an opinion.