The Trading Post | 08.10.26

Good morning,

Rate-hike odds are collapsing after Friday’s ugly jobs print, oil is chopping around on fresh Hormuz confusion, chip stocks head into another major earnings week, Simon Property Group reports after the bell, and Rocket Lab is already launching expectations before its own numbers hit.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 08.07.26 market close.

Market News

• Fed Rate-Hike Odds Collapse: September hike odds have fallen to roughly 42–44% as traders continue digesting Friday’s surprise 23K payroll loss. Growth, tech, and small caps are catching the bid, but Wednesday’s CPI report gets the next vote. Watch for continuation—or the market’s favorite hobby, aggressively changing its mind. Reuters | CNBC

• Oil Stuck in Geopolitical Limbo: Brent is hovering near $84.40 and WTI near $78.80 as Iran denies direct U.S. talks and traders continue sorting through Strait of Hormuz headlines. After last week’s sharp drop, watch for a break from the current range before assuming crude has picked a personality. CNBC | Reuters

• Semis Face Another Big Test: Chip momentum carries into a week featuring earnings from Applied Materials, Cisco, and CoreWeave. NVDA, AMD, MU, SMH, and SOX remain key tells, with AMAT’s Thursday report offering another read on whether AI spending remains glorious, expensive, or gloriously expensive. Reuters

• Wall Street Keeps Raising the Bar: The S&P 500 enters Monday near record territory as Q2 earnings continue to crush expectations, with profits on pace to rise roughly 31% year over year. JPMorgan has reportedly lifted its 2026 S&P 500 target to 8,000. The trend remains your friend—right up until everyone starts calling it their best friend. Watch SPY/ES for continued acceptance near the highs versus a failed breakout ahead of Wednesday’s CPI. Reuters

• Berkshire Opens the Wallet Again: Berkshire Hathaway reported 16% growth in Q2 operating profit to $12.98B and accelerated share repurchases, buying back $4.5B of stock during the quarter after a lengthy pause. Berkshire also became a net buyer of equities again, suggesting Greg Abel isn’t planning to spend the company’s mountain of cash simply admiring the view. Watch BRK.B and financial/value names for follow-through as investors digest the shift in capital allocation. Reuters

Earnings We’re Watching

• Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. (BRK.B) - Monday (BMO)

• Barrick Mining Corporation (B) - Monday (BMO)

• Ferguson plc (FERG) - Monday (BMO)

• Dole plc (DOLE) - Monday (BMO)

• Embraer S.A. (EMBJ) - Monday (BMO)

• Kaspi.kz (KSPI) - Monday (BMO)

• AECOM (ACM) - Monday (AMC)

• Alcon Inc. (ALC) - Monday (AMC)

• JBS N.V. (JBS) - Monday (AMC)

• NIQ Global Intelligence plc (NIQ) - Monday (AMC)

• Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) - Monday (AMC)

Trade Ideas

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

Get these ideas delivered to your inbox daily with Trade With Rob. It’s 100% free. Sign up here.

Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

Economics has an unfortunate habit of sounding like something that should be discussed by professors standing beside very complicated charts.

Then CPI comes in hot and your call options lose 40% before you finish your coffee.

Suddenly, economics feels considerably less academic.

For traders, interest rates, inflation, employment, consumer spending, government policy, and capital flows aren't abstract concepts. They're the forces constantly rearranging prices underneath our charts.

You don't need a Ph.D. to trade them. But pretending they don't matter because you're “just trading technicals” is a little like driving while refusing to acknowledge weather.

The chart tells you what the market is doing. Economics can help explain why the entire highway suddenly got slippery.

And knowing both usually beats being surprised by either.