The Trading Post | 08.11.26

Good morning,

Oil is climbing as the US-Iran standoff drags on, Nvidia is recruiting Wall Street to finance a $500B AI buildout, tomorrow’s CPI could reshape the Fed path, Trump is reopening his battle with the Fed, and Intel investors just got introduced to everyone’s favorite word: dilution.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 08.10.26 market close.

Market News

• Oil jumps as the Hormuz standoff gets uglier: WTI pushed above $83 and Brent neared $90 as hopes for a US-Iran deal faded, adding another inflation headache just before CPI. Energy remains the cleaner momentum trade, but one diplomatic headline could send crude back downstairs in a hurry. Reuters

• Nvidia wants Wall Street to help finance the AI arms race: NVDA partnered with Apollo, Blackstone, BlackRock, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR on platforms targeting more than $500B in outside AI-infrastructure capital, with Nvidia potentially backstopping as much as $125B. Bullish for the ecosystem. Slightly less comforting if you were hoping AI spending would eventually involve actual pocket change. CNBC

• Tomorrow’s CPI is the next volatility grenade: July CPI lands Wednesday, with headline inflation expected around 3.4% and core around 2.5%. A hot print could revive September hike fears; a softer number gives growth stocks and bonds some breathing room. Translation: today may mostly be positioning for tomorrow. CNBC

• Trump reopens the Fed-independence fight: The White House says Trump is considering removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook over mortgage-fraud allegations, injecting another variable into an already divided Fed ahead of September. Watch TLT, long-end yields and DXY — apparently inflation data alone wasn't providing enough entertainment. Reuters

• Intel falls on a potential $15B stock sale: INTC slid after announcing it may raise as much as $15B through new shares to fund its AI and manufacturing ambitions. The money helps the strategy; the dilution doesn't exactly send existing shareholders a thank-you basket. Watch for bounce-and-fade setups rather than blindly chasing a recovery. Yahoo Finance

• Treasury yields climb with oil: The 10-year yield moved up roughly 3 basis points to 4.73% as higher crude prices revived inflation concerns. Until yields calm down, rate-sensitive tech and real estate could remain the market's designated punching bags. CNBC

• Monday ended with a mild case of indigestion: The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all finished slightly lower as rising oil, higher yields and weakness in tech and real estate outweighed pockets of strength elsewhere. Not panic. Just enough red to remind everyone stocks are technically allowed to decline. Yahoo Finance

• Archer Aviation catches a Boeing boost: ACHR jumped roughly 12% after agreeing to acquire three Boeing subsidiaries, giving traders another AI/next-gen-tech adjacent momentum name while Intel wrestles with its capital raise. Momentum traders should watch whether the gap can hold rather than volunteering to become the exit liquidity. Yahoo Finance

• Meta stays in the AI rotation: META gained on fresh AI-model developments even while the broader Nasdaq slipped, showing that investors are still willing to reward AI stories — they’re just becoming considerably more selective about which ones deserve the confetti. Reuters

• Futures are green, but nobody looks particularly relaxed: S&P futures were about +0.1% and Nasdaq futures roughly +0.4% as softer labor data competed with oil-driven inflation fears. With CPI tomorrow and Fed drama simmering, smaller sizing and defined-risk options remain preferable to discovering religion halfway through an oversized trade. Yahoo Finance

Earnings We’re Watching

• HUYA Inc. (HUYA) - Tuesday (BMO)

• On Holding AG (ONON) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Elbit Systems Ltd. (ESLT) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Venture Global, Inc. (VG) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Sea Limited (SE) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Aramark Holdings Corp. (ARMK) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Amentum (AMTM) - Tuesday (BMO)

• Supermicro (SMCI) - Tuesday (AMC)

• CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV) - Tuesday (AMC)

• H&R Block Inc. (HRB) - Tuesday (AMC)

• Adecoagro (AGRO) - Tuesday (AMC)

• Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) - Tuesday (AMC)

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

A trade without an exit plan isn't really a trade. It's a hostage situation with a ticker symbol.

Before entering, you should already know where you're wrong, where you're taking profits, and what would cause you to change the plan. Otherwise, every tick becomes a fresh negotiation with yourself — and somehow your brain always discovers a compelling new reason to hold the loser just a little longer.

The market is under no obligation to cooperate with your entry. That's why exits matter more than predictions. Define the risk first, establish the target second, and then decide whether the trade deserves your capital.

Because figuring out where to get out after things go sideways is less "trade management" and more "emergency evacuation.