The Trading Post | 08.12.26

Good morning,

July CPI is today’s macro fulcrum, AI infrastructure is back in play, CoreWeave and Super Micro are flashing serious demand, oil is climbing on renewed Middle East supply risk, and Nasdaq futures are leading as megacap tech finds buyers again. Inflation versus AI enthusiasm—because apparently traders needed two competing narratives before breakfast.

Let’s jump in.

Pre-Market Performance

As of 08.11.26 market close.

Market News

• July CPI puts rates back in the driver’s seat: Economists expect headline CPI at +0.1% MoM / +3.4% YoY and core CPI at +0.2% MoM / +2.5% YoY. Watch the 2-year yield, dollar, and Nasdaq futures together—a hot core print pressures long-duration tech, while an in-line or softer number gives QQQ room to run. Reuters

• Oil climbs as Middle East risk returns: Brent traded near $89.66 and WTI around $83.92 as U.S.-Iran deal doubts and shipping attacks revived supply concerns. A reported 9.1M-barrel U.S. crude inventory build is the bearish wrinkle, so watch whether crude can hold its prior-session high before chasing XLE strength. Reuters

• Nasdaq futures lead ahead of CPI: Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.65%, easily outpacing the S&P and Dow as AI optimism outweighed pre-CPI nerves. Keep an eye on QQQ versus SPY relative strength after the open—continued leadership confirms risk-on; a rotation toward SPY/XLE says inflation concerns are taking over. Reuters

• Fed’s new “say less” strategy could mean more volatility: Chair Kevin Warsh is pushing the Fed toward less forward guidance, shorter statements, and potentially fewer policy meetings. Traders aren’t thrilled with the mystery-box approach—less guidance could mean larger reactions to CPI, jobs data, and Fed speakers, plus more pressure on longer-term yields. Trading insight: Expect economic releases to carry more weight than usual; keep TLT, the 10-year yield, DXY, and QQQ paired on your screen when major data hits. Reuters

• Japan’s bond yields hit records as BOJ tightening bets build: Japan’s 5-year government bond yield reached a record 2.12% as traders increased bets that the Bank of Japan may tighten policy further. Rising Japanese yields can pull capital home and pressure global carry trades—a subplot Wall Street tends to ignore right up until it stops being a subplot. Trading insight: Watch USD/JPY, Treasury yields, and NQ/QQQ for signs that tighter Japanese financial conditions are spilling into U.S. risk assets. Reuters

Earnings We’re Watching

• Boyd Group Services Inc. (BGSI) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Brinker International, Inc. (EAT) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Grocery Outlet, Inc. (GO) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Coherent Inc. (COHR) - Wednesday (AMC)

• EquipmentShare.com Inc. (EQPT) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Tiendas 3B (TBBB) - Wednesday (AMC)

• BitGo Holdings, Inc. (BTGO) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Stantec Inc (STN) - Wednesday (AMC)

• Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) - Wednesday (AMC)

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

Luck gets way too much credit in trading. The market can hand you the perfect setup, but if you haven’t done the homework, defined the risk, and decided what would invalidate the trade, that “opportunity” is mostly just a colorful candle moving quickly across your screen.

Preparation is what turns randomness into something usable. You can’t control when a clean breakout, earnings surprise, or volatility spike appears—but you can control whether you recognize it and whether you’re ready to act without improvising like a raccoon at a Bloomberg terminal.

The best traders don’t need to predict where opportunity will show up. They build a process so that when it does, they’re already standing there with a plan. Luck may open the door. Preparation is what keeps you from tripping over the threshold.