The Trading Post | 08.13.26

Good morning,

U.S. futures edged higher ahead of July PPI, oil retreated after a six-session run, CPI kept the Fed “on hold” case intact without killing inflation risk, AI infrastructure names continued to surge, and Applied Materials reports after the bell—keeping semiconductors firmly in the event-risk spotlight.

Let’s jump in.

Pre-Market Performance

As of 08.12.26 market close.

Market News

• PPI takes center stage: U.S. stock futures ticked higher as traders waited for July producer prices to confirm—or ruin—the market’s latest inflation optimism. Watch Nasdaq futures and the 10-year yield before chasing the first move. Reuters

• The Fed still has a hall pass to do nothing: July CPI broadly behaved, although monthly core inflation came in slightly firmer than expected. The current setup still favors a September hold rather than an aggressive easing pivot, so maybe don’t price in the victory parade just yet. Reuters

• Oil finally takes a breather: Brent fell roughly 1.9% after six straight gains as demand concerns and rising U.S. inventories pressured crude. Iran and Hormuz remain the wildcard capable of turning a quiet energy session into something considerably less quiet. Reuters

• AI infrastructure is still attracting oxygen: CoreWeave raised its spending outlook and beat Q2 expectations while Super Micro issued fiscal-2027 revenue guidance above Wall Street forecasts. CRWV and SMCI surged roughly 19%, keeping the AI buildout trade alive and occasionally detached from gravity. Reuters

• Applied Materials gets the semiconductor spotlight: AMAT reports after Thursday’s close, putting chip-equipment names and semiconductor ETFs on alert. Expect guidance—not merely the headline numbers—to determine whether the broader chip trade gets another leg higher or a reality check. Benzinga

• AI remains the tape leader: SMCI, CRWV, NVDA, and INTC were among the most active names, while Nebius jumped more than 34%. Momentum remains strong, but when leveraged AI products start moving 60%+ in a session, “risk management” becomes slightly more than decorative vocabulary. Reuters

Earnings We’re Watching

• JD.com, Inc. (JD) - Thursday (BMO)

• Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT) - Thursday (BMO)

• Tapestry, Inc. (TPR) - Thursday (BMO)

• Legence Corp. (LGN) - Thursday (BMO)

• GMR Solutions Inc. (GMRS) - Thursday (BMO)

• Resideo Technologies, Inc. (REZI) - Thursday (BMO)

• Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) - Thursday (AMC)

• Credicorp, Ltd (BAP) - Thursday (AMC)

Trade Ideas

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

Get these ideas delivered to your inbox daily with Trade With Rob. It’s 100% free. Sign up here.

Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

This one is a perfect reminder that trading is not a competitive sport in market-timing perfection. The bottom only becomes obvious after price has already left it, and the top usually introduces itself somewhere around the time everyone starts feeling invincible. Trying to capture both is less strategy and more fortune-telling with candlesticks.

The professional approach is far less glamorous: wait for confirmation, enter when the odds favor you, manage the risk, and take the exit the market gives you. You’ll inevitably leave a little money on the table. Good. That’s usually evidence that you had an actual exit plan rather than waiting for divine intervention.

The goal isn’t to buy the exact low and sell the exact high. It’s to consistently capture the profitable part in between. Let someone else brag about catching every turning point. As the quote suggests, their brokerage statement may remember things differently.