The Trading Post | 08.14.26

August 14, 2026

Good morning,

The S&P 500 is sitting at a record, Reddit is crashing the S&P 500 party, Applied Materials is getting punished despite an upbeat outlook, oil is back on the geopolitical trampoline, and rising real yields are giving the AI trade one more thing to worry about.

Let’s jump in.

Pre-Market Performance

As of 08.13.26 market close.

Market News

  • S&P 500 sits at a record—but Friday could test the breakout: The index closed at 7,798.99 as easing rate-hike fears and solid earnings kept buyers engaged. Watch Thursday’s highs: holding above them favors continuation; falling back into Thursday’s range opens the door to profit-taking. Reuters

  • Applied Materials drops despite an upbeat outlook: AMAT fell roughly 5% premarket as investors questioned whether growth can outrun intensifying competition. A break of the premarket low alongside weakness in SMH/SOXX favors continuation lower; a VWAP reclaim says buyers may be treating this as an earnings hangover instead. Reuters

  • Reddit gets promoted to the S&P 500: RDDT surged more than 12% premarket after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced it will replace AvalonBay in the index. Index-fund demand should bring plenty of volume—and probably a few traders discovering FOMO for the first time. Watch the opening range rather than blindly chasing the gap. Reuters

  • Oil climbs as Middle East negotiations stall: Brent rose roughly 1.7% toward $88.50 and is headed for about a 6% weekly gain. Sustained crude strength favors energy while creating another potential headache for transports, consumer names, and rate-sensitive growth stocks. Reuters

  • AI’s funding boom is showing up in bond yields: U.S. 30-year real yields are near 18-year highs around 3% as governments and AI companies ramp up borrowing. If yields keep rising while semiconductor and hyperscaler breakouts stall, momentum traders may want to tighten the leash. Reuters

Trade Ideas

Capital One Financial Corporation (COF), Credo Technology Holding Group (CRDO), iShares MSCI South Korea Index (EWY), SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)

Corning Incorporated (GLW), Marvell Technology Group, Ltd (MRVL), ServiceNow, Inc (NOW),
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

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Daily Moment of Zen

❝

You learn in this business: if you want a friend, get a dog.

Carl Icahn

Why It Matters:

Wall Street is a wonderfully social place right up until your money is on the line.

The point isn’t that everyone in the market is secretly plotting against you. It’s that the market has absolutely no obligation to agree with you, reward your conviction, or care how much research you did before clicking Buy. Your favorite analyst can be wrong. The crowd can be wrong. Your trading buddy can be spectacularly wrong—and usually with impressive confidence.

That’s why good traders rely on process instead of companionship. Have your levels. Define your risk. Know where you’re wrong. And when the tape contradicts your thesis, listen to the tape.

Markets don’t need to be your friend. They just need to give you an opportunity.

And if you still want unconditional support after getting stopped out three times before lunch…well, apparently that’s what the dog is for.