The Trading Post | 08.18.26

August 18, 2026

Good morning,

Brent is back above $90, the 30-year Treasury yield is flirting with multi-decade highs, Nasdaq futures are leading stocks lower, Home Depot delivered a solid quarter, and volatility is waking up from its nap.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 08.17.26 market close.

Market News

  • Oil Reclaims $90: Brent pushed above $91 and WTI traded near $85 as U.S.-Iran tensions renewed concerns about potential disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. Energy gets the bid; everyone else gets the inflation headache. Yahoo Finance

  • Long Bonds Keep Selling: The 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.74%, while the 30-year reached roughly 5.32%—near its highest level in decades. That's a fairly expensive reminder that valuation still matters. CNBC

  • Nasdaq Leads Lower: Tech-heavy futures significantly underperformed the Dow as higher yields hit duration-sensitive growth stocks hardest. Watch QQQ versus SPY for confirmation that this remains a valuation trade rather than broad economic fear. MarketWatch

  • Volatility Finally Notices: The VIX is bouncing after recently reaching its lowest level of 2026. With oil, yields, and geopolitics all moving simultaneously, complacency may have chosen a questionable week to feel confident. CNBC

  • Housing Gets Another Test: Toll Brothers reports alongside an already rate-sensitive housing complex, putting homebuilders and XHB on watch while long-term borrowing costs remain elevated. Yahoo Finance

Earnings We’re Watching

  • Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) - Tuesday (BMO)

  • Home Depot, Inc. (HD) - Tuesday (BMO)

  • Amer Sports, Inc. (AS) - Tuesday (BMO)

  • Chemical & Mining Co. of Chile Inc. (SQM) - Tuesday (AMC)

  • Keysight Technologies, Inc. (KEYS) - Tuesday (AMC)

  • Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) - Tuesday (AMC)

  • ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) - Tuesday (AMC)

Daily Moment of Zen

❝

Accepting losses is the most important single investment device to insure safety of capital.

Gerald Loeb

Why It Matters:

Accepting a loss isn’t admitting defeat—it’s paying a small fee to stay in the game. The real danger comes when traders stop managing risk and start negotiating with the chart: “Maybe it’ll come back.” Famous last words, usually spoken somewhere between a broken stop and an accidentally long-term investment.

Capital preservation is what gives you another swing when the next high-quality setup appears. A controlled loss hurts the ego. An uncontrolled loss hurts the account. Only one of those recovers quickly.

Trading takeaway: Define your exit before entering the trade, honor it when you’re wrong, and remember that protecting capital is a strategy—not cowardice. The market will provide another opportunity. It is under no obligation to refund this one.