The Trading Post | 08.19.26

Good morning,

Long-bond yields are hovering near multi-decade highs, Treasury is selling $16B of 20-year debt, FOMC minutes hit at 2 p.m. ET, Brent is holding above $90, and tech is still nursing yesterday’s bruises. Meanwhile, Moderna decided subtlety was overrated and ripped as much as 57%.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 08.18.26 market close.

Market News

• Rates Are Running the Show: The 20-year Treasury auction hits at 1 p.m. ET, followed by July FOMC minutes at 2 p.m. A weak auction or hawkish Fed language could pressure long-duration tech, while a Treasury relief rally could give QQQ some breathing room. Keep an eye on TLT, IEF, SPY, and QQQ—they’re basically sharing one nervous system today. Reuters

• Oil Keeps Grinding Higher: Brent traded near $91.28 and WTI around $85.31 as uncertainty around Strait of Hormuz access keeps supply risk elevated. EIA inventories land at 10:30 a.m. ET, making CL, USO, and XLE the obvious volatility watch. A draw could extend the move; a surprise build could quickly remind late buyers that four-day rallies occasionally have gravity. CNBC

• Biotech Goes Vertical: Moderna surged as much as 57% and Merck gained more than 6% following positive late-stage data for their personalized cancer vaccine. For MRNA, watch the opening-range low and VWAP after the gap; MRK offers the lower-beta sympathy trade, while XBI will tell us whether buyers are spreading the love. CNBC

• Selective Strength in Semis: Analog Devices beat earnings, revenue, guidance, and gross-margin expectations, while Keysight also topped estimates. If ADI and KEYS can hold VWAP while SMH/SOXX struggle, traders are rewarding execution instead of buying chips indiscriminately. How refreshingly selective. CNBC

• Retail Sends Mixed Signals: Lowe’s fell after missing revenue and guiding toward the low end of its range, while Target slipped despite stronger revenue and higher guidance after a $752M tariff-refund boost helped earnings. Watch LOW, TGT, HD, XRT, and XHB for confirmation as elevated yields keep housing-sensitive retail under pressure. CNBC

• Today’s Event Clock: EIA inventories hit at 10:30 a.m. ET, the 20-year Treasury auction lands at 1:00 p.m., and FOMC minutes arrive at 2:00 p.m. Translation: there are three separate opportunities for the market to dramatically change its mind before the closing bell. Reuters

Earnings We’re Watching

• Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Target Corporation (TGT) - Wednesday (BMO)

• The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) - Wednesday (BMO)

• The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) - Wednesday (BMO)

• ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. (ZIM) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Viking Holdings Ltd (VIK) - Wednesday (BMO)

• Coty Inc. (COTY) - Wednesday (AMC)

Trade Ideas

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

Trading gets expensive the moment preparation is replaced with prophecy. Nobody knows where the next candle, headline, Fed comment, or geopolitical surprise will send the market—and anyone claiming otherwise probably has a course, a crystal ball, or both.

Preparation is different. It means knowing your entry, your exit, your risk, and what would prove your thesis wrong before the market starts improvising. You don’t need to know what happens next. You need to know what you’ll do when it does.

The market doesn’t reward fortune-telling nearly as consistently as it rewards having a plan when everyone else is busy being surprised.