The Trading Post | 08.24.26

August 24, 2026

Good morning,

Nvidia risk is weighing on tech, the 30-year yield is hovering near 19-year highs, semis are pricing in a sizable earnings move, oil is slipping ahead of new Iran sanctions, and U.S.–Canada trade tensions are adding another headline grenade to Monday’s open.

Let’s jump in.

Yesterday’s Post-Market Performance

As of 08.21.26 market close.

Market News

  • Tech Takes the Hit: Nasdaq futures fell about 0.7% versus roughly 0.2% for the S&P 500 as traders de-risk ahead of Nvidia and Jackson Hole. Watch QQQ/SMH vs. SPY—continued relative weakness keeps the short-term edge away from high-beta tech. MarketWatch 

  • Yields Remain the Risk Switch: The 30-year Treasury yield is near 5.25%, not far from last week’s 5.3371% peak, while the 10-year remains around 4.7%. Higher yields = another headache for long-duration tech. Because apparently AI stocks needed one more thing to worry about. Reuters 

  • Nvidia’s Volatility Tax: NVDA options are pricing roughly a 5%–6.5% post-earnings move Wednesday. Elevated IV makes blindly buying weekly premium an expensive way to discover you were directionally right but mathematically wrong. Reuters 

  • Oil Retreats on Iran Watch: WTI fell roughly 1.3% to $85.93 and Brent slipped to about $93.22 as traders wait for details on proposed U.S. sanctions against Iran. Watch CL and XLE for the reaction once the policy details hit. CNBC 

  • Trade Tensions Add More Noise: U.S.–Canada trade talks, Iran policy, and growing concerns over the cost of AI investment are adding another layer of uncertainty. Watch industrials, autos, materials, and other cross-border-sensitive names for headline whiplash. Yahoo Finance

Earnings We’re Watching

  • XPeng Inc. (XPEV) - Monday (BMO)

  • PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) - Monday (BMO)

  • PicS N.V. (PICS) - Monday (AMC)

Trade Ideas

Apple Inc (AAPL), Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited (AEM), General Electric Company (GE),
Hut 8 Mining Corp. (HUT)

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Morgan Stanley (MS), NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), Shopify Inc (SHOP)

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX), Vistra Energy Corp (VST), Apple Inc (AAPL),
Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited (AEM)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

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Daily Moment of Zen

❝

Being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong.

Howard Marks

Why It Matters:

This is a great trading quote because markets don’t hand out trophies for being eventually right.

You can nail the thesis—overvaluation, recession risk, a breakout, a coming rotation—and still lose money if your timing is three weeks, three months, or three years early. The market can remain irrational longer than your account can remain enthusiastic.

For traders, the lesson is simple: being right about direction is only half the trade. Timing, confirmation, and risk management are the other half. Instead of trying to prove you saw the move before everyone else, let price action confirm that the market is finally ready to agree with you.

Because “I was early” sounds much more sophisticated than “I was wrong”…but your P&L has never been especially interested in semantics.