The Trading Post | 09.17.25

September 17, 2025

Good morning,

Fed set to cut rates by 25 basis points, gold hits $3,700, Oracle flirts with dot-com valuations, StubHub’s $800M IPO hits the tape, and China’s AI stocks soar to 4-year highs.

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Let’s jump in.

Pre-Market Performance

As of 09.16.25 market close.

Market News

  • Fed cut nearly baked in: 96% odds of a 25bps cut today, with traders eyeing Powell’s tone more than the move itself. Bloomberg

  • Oracle mania: Stock up 84% YTD, trades at 43x forward earnings—higher than most megacaps. Déjà vu 2000? Yahoo Finance

  • Gold record: $3,700/oz as the dollar sinks to a 10-week low. DB sees $4,000 in 2026. Bloomberg

  • StubHub IPO: Priced at $23.50/share, $8.6B valuation. Trading opens today on NYSE under “STUB”. CNBC

  • China’s AI rally: Hang Seng Tech Index jumps 3.9%, led by Baidu +19%, Alibaba at 2021 highs. Bloomberg

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Earnings We’re Watching

  • General Mills, Inc. (GIS) - Wednesday (BMO) 

Trade Ideas

Zscaler, Inc (ZS), Agilent Technologies, Inc (A), Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR), Deere & Company (DE)

Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL), Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP), Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO), Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorpo (VRTX)

Snowflake Inc. Class A Common (SNOW), iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor (SOXX), Simon Property Group, Inc (SPG), TE Connectivity Ltd (TEL)

Expedia Inc (EXPE), iShares Russell 2000 Index Fun (IWM), NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), Shopify Inc (SHOP)

Agilent Technologies, Inc (A), Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR), Deere & Company (DE), Elastic N.V. (ESTC)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

Get these ideas delivered to your inbox daily with Trade With Rob. It’s 100% free. Sign up here.

Daily Moment of Zen

❝

No society can surely be flourishing and happy of which by far the greater part of the numbers are poor and miserable.

Adam Smith

Why It Matters:

Markets may cheer GDP growth, stock buybacks, or another Fed rate cut, but Smith reminds us that macro “prosperity” means nothing if the majority is barely scraping by. In trading terms, think of it like a stock rallying while 80% of its components bleed red — the headline number looks great, but the internals scream fragility.

For traders, it’s a cue to watch breadth, not just price. The S&P at all-time highs is meaningless if the advance/decline line is collapsing. Economic booms built on widening inequality eventually show up in policy shifts, populist movements, and volatility spikes. Translation: if the crowd is miserable, don’t expect smooth sailing for the elite few — or for the indices they prop up.