The Trading Post | 09.18.25

Good morning,

The Fed finally trims rates 25 bps, markets pop to new highs, Tesla gets probed over door handles that trap people inside (great for bears, not so much for toddlers), FedEx reports after the bell, and Chinese tech stocks surge as Nvidia gets iced out.

Get the complete trading education foundation with Trading U, and Annual/Lifetime subscribers now receive Omega Chartz Lite absolutely free.

Let’s jump in.

Pre-Market Performance

As of 09.17.25 market close.

Market News

  • Fed cuts 25 bps: Funds rate now 4–4.25%, Powell hints at two more cuts this year Reuters.

  • Markets rip: S&P 500 futures +0.86%, Nasdaq +1.05%, Russell 2000 +1.5% CNBC.

  • Record watch: S&P closed above 6,600 for the first time earlier this week MarketWatch.

  • Chinese tech flies: Hang Seng Tech Index hits highest since 2021, Baidu & Alibaba soar Bloomberg.

  • Oil drifts lower: Supply worries trump Fed optimism Reuters.

  • Gold hangs near record: Investors pile in as dollar slides Yahoo Finance.

  • Bond traders expect more cuts: Pricing in ~45 bps of easing by year-end Reuters.

  • Nvidia pressure in China: Local AI players gain as U.S. chips restricted YouTube.

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Earnings We’re Watching

  • Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) - Thursday (BMO) 

  • Lennar Corp. (LEN) - Thursday (AMC) 

  • FedEx Corp. (FDX) - Thursday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactu (TSM), Union Pacific Corporation (UNP), Amgen Inc (AMGN), Amazon.com, Inc (AMZN)

Simon Property Group, Inc (SPG), Constellation Brands Inc (STZ), TE Connectivity Ltd (TEL), Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)

Royal Carribean Cruises Ltd (RCL), Shopify Inc (SHOP), Snowflake Inc. Class A Common (SNOW), iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor (SOXX)

McDonalds Corporation (MCD), Netflix, Inc (NFLX), GraniteShares 1.5x Long NVDA (NVDI) QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM)

Gilead Science, Inc (GILD), International Business Machine (IBM), Kkr (KKR), Linde plc - Ordinary Shares (LIN)

CME Group Inc (CME), Chevron Corporation (CVX), Dell Technologies Inc (DELL), EOG Resources, Inc (EOG)

Amgen Inc (AMGN), Amazon.co, Inc (AMZN), Arista Networks, Inc (ANET), CIGNA Corporation (CI)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

Get these ideas delivered to your inbox daily with Trade With Rob. It’s 100% free. Sign up here.

Daily Moment of Zen

Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading, and always first and foremost protecting your ass.

Paul Tudor Jones

Why It Matters:

Jones basically just laid out the trader’s survival manual in one sentence. Wishing is what gamblers do. Trading is what professionals do. And protecting your backside? That’s not fear—it’s discipline. The difference between a career and a cautionary tale often comes down to how seriously you take risk management.

So yes, dreams are cute, but stop manifesting and start managing. The market doesn’t care about your vision board—it cares about your stop loss.