The Trading Post | 09.19.25

Good morning,

Fed rate cut bets send indexes to record highs, Tesla jumps on robotics hype, Warner Bros. Discovery rockets 29% on merger chatter, the Magnificent 7 break $20 trillion, and oil inches up despite Russian port attack.

Get the complete trading education foundation with Trading U, and Annual/Lifetime subscribers now receive Omega Chartz Lite absolutely free.

Let’s jump in.

Pre-Market Performance

As of 09.18.25 market close.

Market News

  • Fed cut bets fuel record highs: CPI hit 2.9% YoY but markets shrugged, with Nasdaq closing at fresh highs and futures showing 96% odds of a 25bps cut next week (Reuters).

  • Tesla +6% breakout: Musk pivots hype machine toward humanoid robots, declaring Optimus the company’s real value driver (Bloomberg).

  • Warner Bros. Discovery rips +29%: Paramount-Skydance rumored to be eyeing a cash-heavy bid (Investopedia).

  • Magnificent 7 hit $20T market cap: Tech’s stranglehold on market cap tightens, surpassing the GDP of every country but the US (CNBC).

  • Oil creeps up: Brent settles just under $67 as Ukrainian drone strikes hit Russian export facilities, but US demand woes cap gains (Reuters).

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Trade Ideas

Simon Property Group, Inc (SPG), Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc (TMO), Autodesk, Inc (ADSK), Broadcom Inc (AVGO)

3M Company (MMM), Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC), NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor (SOXX)

Deere & Company (DE), EOG Resources, Inc (EOG), Gilead Sciences, Inc (GILD), Meta Platforms Inc (META)

Autodesk, Inc (ADSK), Broadcom Inc (AVGO), CME Group Inc (CME), Chevron Corporation (CVX)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

Get these ideas delivered to your inbox daily with Trade With Rob. It’s 100% free. Sign up here.

Daily Moment of Zen

It's very difficult to be different from the rest of the crowd the majority of the time, which by definition is what you're doing if you're a successful trader.

Bill Lipschutz

Why It Matters:

The market rewards contrarians—but only the right kind of contrarians. Being “different” doesn’t mean reflexively fading every trend; it means having the conviction to zig when everyone else is zagging and the discipline to sit out when the crowd is stampeding off a cliff. Most traders crave the comfort of consensus—it feels safe. But safety is usually just a prelude to mediocrity.

Successful trading often looks lonely: buying when others are panicking, selling into euphoria, or sitting in cash when everyone else insists there’s “easy money” to be made. The hard part isn’t identifying that the herd is wrong; it’s withstanding the psychological pain of watching everyone else look “right” in the short term while you quietly position for the reversal.

So yes—it’s difficult to be different most of the time. But the rent you pay for independence is doubt, ridicule, and the occasional gut-punch. The payoff is survival when the crowd gets trampled.