The Trading Post | 11.12.25

November 12, 2025

Good morning,

Dow notches a fresh high as a shutdown deal nears a House vote, Nvidia slips after SoftBank exits its stake, FedEx rips on guidance despite MD‑11 turbulence, Powell muddies December cut odds amid a data blackout, and AMD touts big‑league growth while Tesla’s China sales crater.

Master SPX trading in just 5-6 hours per week with Brandon Wendell's proven strategy that thousands of traders are already using—register for this free training now. 

Let’s jump in.

Pre-Market Performance

As of 11.12.25 market close.

Market News

  • Dow hits record into House vote on shutdown: Blue chips +1.2% on Tuesday; S&P +0.2%; Nasdaq −0.3% as rotation favors cyclicals/financials. House expected to vote today on the Senate bill ending the 43‑day shutdown. Watch: a hiccup in the vote could spike vol. Morningstar, CNBC, Reuters, WaPo

  • SoftBank exits NVDA stake (~$5.8B): Sells 32.1M shares to fund massive OpenAI/“Stargate” bets; rekindles AI‑bubble chatter; NVDA −3% on the tape. Fortune, Reuters, CNBC

  • Powell hedges on December: October cut to 3.75–4.00% is in; the long shutdown’s data blackout leaves the Fed “flying blind,” complicating a follow‑up move. Federal Reserve, WSJ, Goldman Sachs

  • FedEx pops on upbeat outlook: Guides to sequential and YoY improvement despite grounding 28 MD‑11s after the UPS crash; relative‑strength leader vs. UPS. TipRanks, Business Insider

  • AMD turns the volume up: Record Q3 revenue; outlines >60% data‑center CAGR and >35% overall revenue growth through 2030; stock breaks higher. AMD IR, Reuters

  • Tesla China sales fall 36% m/m to 3‑yr low: Share down to 3.2% amid Xiaomi/local EV pressure; European registrations also −36% YoY. CNEV Post, CarNewsChina

  • CRE stress flashing: Office CMBS delinquencies hit a record 11.8%; multifamily at 7.1% — worst since 2015 — as credit conditions tighten. Wolf Street, Trepp

  • Europe/Asia follow‑through: European shares hit records on shutdown hopes; Asia mixed as AI rally stalls and dollar eases. Reuters, Reuters

  • Commodities: Oil little changed as traders eye reopening timing; gold sticks above $4,100 amid cut hopes. Reuters, MarketWatch

  • Street targets: Goldman keeps S&P 500 2025 target at 6,500; warns U.S. stocks may lag global peers over the next decade as valuations sit in the 93rd percentile. Goldman Sachs, Bloomberg

A Message From Wealth Builders HQ

Trade Smarter, Not Harder: Master SPX in Less Time 

What if you could generate consistent income from trading while reclaiming most of your week? 

Brandon Wendell, a Chartered Market Technician with 25 years of trading experience, is hosting a free training that reveals how to trade SPX options effectively in just 5-6 hours per week. 

In this session, you'll discover: 

The SPX Success Formula – A straightforward strategy that hundreds of traders use daily to create consistent cash flow without constant market monitoring. 

Time Freedom – Learn how to consolidate your entire week's trading into less than six total hours, freeing you to focus on what matters most in your life. 

Simplified Candidate Selection – Get a head start on identifying positions that are analytically positioned to move, dramatically reducing your research time. 

This training is perfect if you're tired of complex strategies that consume your day, if you're seeking consistency over home runs, or if you want a proven approach that actually works without the constant stress of monitoring trades. 

The best part? This is completely free—no credit card required, no obligation to buy anything. 

Brandon has taught thousands of students over his 20+ years as an instructor, and he's breaking down the exact system he uses in his personal trading. 

Earnings We’re Watching

  • Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) - Wednesday (AMC) 

  • Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (SID) - Wednesday (AMC) 

Trade Ideas

Tesla Motors (TSLA), Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO), Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorpo (VRTX), Autodesk, Inc (ADSK)

Roku, Inc (ROKU), Sea Limited (SE), Simon Property Group (SPG), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)

McDonald’s Corporation (MCD), NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), Pinduoduo, Inc (PDD), Reddit, Inc. (RDDT)

Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc (DKS), Elevance Health Inc (ELV), Gartner, Inc (IT), Marriott International (MAR)

Ares Management L.P. (ARES), Broadcom Inc (AVGO), American Express Company (AXP), Carvana Co. (CVNA)

Autodesk, Inc (ADSK), AMTEK Inc (AME), Amgen Inc (AMGN), Abercrombie & Fitch Company (ANF)

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

Get these ideas delivered to your inbox daily with Trade With Rob. It’s 100% free. Sign up here.

Daily Moment of Zen

❝

When you're in a losing streak, your ability to properly assimilate and analyze information starts to become distorted because of the impairment of the confidence factor.

Bill Lipschutz

Why It Matters:

Why it slaps today: Losing trades don’t just drain your account — they hijack your objectivity. When confidence erodes, traders start seeing ghosts in every chart pattern and conspiracy in every red candle. The brain shifts from analyzing probabilities to justifying pain. Suddenly, every trade setup feels like a test of self-worth instead of a calculated decision.

The cure? Detach your ego from your equity curve. Confidence is a lagging indicator — it follows process, not P&L. When the market humbles you (and it will), go mechanical: trade smaller, tighten your plan, and trust your checklist. The market doesn’t care about your confidence, but it rewards your discipline.