The Trading Post | 11.13.25

Good morning,

The record-breaking US government shutdown finally ended, the Dow notched fresh all-time highs while the S&P barely budged, financials and healthcare ripped as crowded tech names slid, AMD lit a fire under non-Nvidia AI plays, SoftBank dumped its entire Nvidia stake to feed the OpenAI beast, and gold broke out above $4,200 as oil sagged on oversupply worries.

Want to follow a proven options system with a 70%+ win rate? Robert Roy's Power Option Plays delivers twice-weekly trade alerts with clear entry and exit plans.

Let’s jump in.

Pre-Market Performance

As of 11.12.25 market close.

Market News

• Shutdown finally ends, Dow tags fresh record high: After 43 days, Washington remembered how to read a calendar and passed a funding bill through January 30, sending the Dow above 48,250 before futures cooled as the “relief rally” got fully priced in. Reuters

• Financials and healthcare catch a bid while tech coughs: Goldman, JPM, and AmEx hit new highs as flows rotate into cash-generative banks and healthcare names like LLY and ABBV, while Tesla, Meta, and Palantir bled as traders take chips off the high-multiple tech table. CNBC

• AMD goes full send on data centers and AI: AMD ripped 8–9% after pitching a 60%+ data center CAGR, $100B+ AI data center revenue “over the next few years,” and its Helios rack-scale AI platform coming in 2026… because nothing says “AI bubble?” like another trillion-dollar TAM slide. AMD IR

• SoftBank nukes its entire Nvidia stake to feed OpenAI habit: SoftBank sold its full $5.8B NVDA stake and is funneling tens of billions toward OpenAI, insisting it’s not bearish on Nvidia while doing something that looks… extremely bearish on Nvidia. Optics matter. Fortune

• Gold breaks above $4,200 as safety suddenly matters again: Spot gold jumped ~2.5% to above $4,210 as traders hedge shutdown hangovers, debt drama, and a higher chance of a December Fed cut, while physical demand in India and Asia stays stubbornly strong. Reuters

• Crude slides on oversupply worries: WTI dropped toward the high-$50s and Brent toward the low-$60s after US inventory builds and OPEC’s latest forecasts revived the “too much oil, not enough demand” narrative. Energy bulls quietly checked their stop losses. Reuters

• Yields chill, dollar softens as rate-cut bets creep higher: The 10-year Treasury hovered near 4.08% and the dollar index dipped under 100 as futures price roughly 60–65% odds of a December cut… which is cute, given the Fed hasn’t seen half the data thanks to the shutdown. Trading Economics

• Bitcoin chops around six figures: Bitcoin flailed around the $104K area as institutional flows turned mixed and the “digital gold” crowd dealt with the awkward reality that actual gold is the one printing new highs. Morningstar

• Vol stays sleepy, which should make you suspicious: VIX sits in the high teens, low enough that hedging isn’t crazy expensive but high enough to remind you that nobody actually knows what the delayed macro data will say next week. FRED

• Nvidia earnings set up as AI’s stress test: With AMD flexing and SoftBank exiting stage left, NVDA’s November 19 print now doubles as a referendum on whether the AI leaders are still in price discovery… or in denial. Nasdaq

A Message From Wealth Builders HQ

Trade Options with Confidence Using a Proven System

Power Option Plays (POP) isn't just another options alert service—it's a complete trading education wrapped around real-time trade opportunities.

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Rob Roy personally analyzes hundreds of stocks every week, selecting only the highest-probability setups based on his Fibonacci and moving average system. You get twice-weekly recorded trainings that walk you through exactly why each trade setup works, so you're learning the methodology while following along.

Since its founding, POP has maintained an average success rate above 70%, generating millions in profit in simulated trading accounts. The system focuses on repeatable patterns using the same core stock candidates, which means you're building pattern recognition with every alert.

What You Get:

• Biweekly recorded training videos breaking down current market setups

• Trade alerts with specific entry points, position sizing, and exit strategies

• A proven tracking system that shows you exactly when to scale in and out

• Quarterly live Q&A sessions ("Mastering The Trade") to refine your approach

• Access to Rob's complete watchlist with bias indicators (bullish, bearish, or neutral)

Whether you're swing trading or day trading, POP teaches you how to fish while giving you the best fishing spots. You'll learn to identify your own setups using Rob's Fibonacci-based system while following his alerts on proven candidates.

Ready to trade with a plan? Check out Power Option Plays and start building your options trading confidence with a system that actually works.

Earnings We’re Watching

• JD.com, Inc. (JD) - Thursday (BMO) 

• Walt Disney Co (DIS) - Thursday (BMO) 

Trade Ideas

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

This is Toby Crabel politely reminding the trading world that if your strategy depends on vibes, astrology, or the S&P “feeling cute, might rip later,” you don’t have a strategy… you have a wish.

“Enduring and explainable market participant behavior” is just a fancy way of saying: trade the patterns that keep happening because humans keep being human. Herding. FOMO. Panic. Profit-taking. Liquidity grabs. All the emotional chaos that never goes out of style.

For traders, the takeaway is simple:

• If a setup only works during full moons, delete it.

• If a strategy collapses the moment conditions change, it wasn’t robust… it was lucky.

• If you can’t explain why other traders are forced to buy or sell at certain inflection points, you aren’t exploiting behavior, you’re guessing.

In other words, build systems around repeatable trader psychology, structural flows, and real supply-and-demand mechanics. Because markets evolve, but human behavior doesn’t… and that’s the closest thing to an “edge” this game ever gives you.