The Trading Post | 11.17.25

Good morning,

Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday will decide whether the AI party continues, the Fed’s October minutes hit a market that just slashed December cut odds in half, Bitcoin has face-planted to six-month lows, big-box retailers are about to confess how the US consumer is really doing, and Japan’s surprise GDP contraction just added another brick to the global slowdown wall.

Want to follow a proven options system with a 70%+ win rate? Robert Roy's Power Option Plays delivers twice-weekly trade alerts with clear entry and exit plans. 

Let’s jump in.

Pre-Market Performance

As of 11.14.25 market close.

Market News

• Nvidia earnings: AI’s moment of truth. Options are pricing a big post-earnings move as Nvidia reports Q3 on Wednesday, with traders debating whether AI capex can keep up with the hype. IG

• Fed minutes + fading cut odds. Wednesday’s FOMC minutes arrive as December rate-cut odds have dropped to roughly a coin flip, pushing yields and the dollar higher and pressuring long-duration growth stocks. SP Global

• Bitcoin cracks below 94K. BTC dumped to six-month lows near 93K as liquidity dries up and spot ETFs see heavy outflows, flipping sentiment to “extreme fear” and keeping pressure on crypto-adjacent equities. Coin Desk

• Retail earnings test the consumer. Walmart, Home Depot, Target, and Lowe’s all report this week, giving the market a reality check on how much pricing power and demand is actually left heading into the holidays. Lineup

• Japan GDP surprise adds to slowdown fears. Japan’s economy shrank for the first time in six quarters, squeezed by weak exports and soft consumption, complicating the BOJ’s path out of ultra-easy policy. Recap

• S&P 500 at decision zone. The index is hovering around the 6,805 pivot with support near 6,668 and resistance around 6,920, as traders brace for an NVDA- and Fed-driven breakout or breakdown. Technical view

• VIX hanging around 20. Volatility is elevated with VIX near 20, implying roughly 2% weekly swings as downside put demand outpaces upside call chasing. Translation: position size should be smaller than your ego. Yahoo Finance

• Sector rotation into defensives. Money continues to leak out of crowded AI/tech trades and into Healthcare, Utilities, Financials, and Industrials as “higher for longer” sinks in. Sector take

• Dollar strength = pain for risk assets. The DXY is grinding higher, pressuring commodities and EM FX while reinforcing the case for defensive equity positioning. FX overview

A Message From Wealth Builders HQ

Trade Options with Confidence Using a Proven System 

Power Option Plays (POP) isn't just another options alert service—it's a complete trading education wrapped around real-time trade opportunities. 

Here's what makes POP different: 

Rob Roy personally analyzes hundreds of stocks every week, selecting only the highest-probability setups based on his Fibonacci and moving average system. You get twice-weekly recorded trainings that walk you through exactly why each trade setup works, so you're learning the methodology while following along. 

Since its founding, POP has maintained an average success rate above 70%, generating millions in profit in simulated trading accounts. The system focuses on repeatable patterns using the same core stock candidates, which means you're building pattern recognition with every alert. 

What You Get: 

• Biweekly recorded training videos breaking down current market setups 

• Trade alerts with specific entry points, position sizing, and exit strategies 

• A proven tracking system that shows you exactly when to scale in and out 

• Quarterly live Q&A sessions ("Mastering The Trade") to refine your approach 

• Access to Rob's complete watchlist with bias indicators (bullish, bearish, or neutral) 

Whether you're swing trading or day trading, POP teaches you how to fish while giving you the best fishing spots. You'll le~arn to identify your own setups using Rob's Fibonacci-based system while following his alerts on proven candidates. 

Ready to trade with a plan? Check out Power Option Plays and start building your options trading confidence with a system that actually works. 

Earnings We’re Watching

• Aramark Holdings Corp. (ARMK) - Monday (BMO) 

• Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) - Monday (AMC) 

Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

This is the market’s version of believing your ex will “finally change” because they were nice to you for a week. Recency bias is one of the most expensive psychological glitches in trading. When a stock has been ripping higher, we start assuming the sky is the limit… right before gravity reasserts itself. When a chart has been bleeding out, we convince ourselves it’s destined to keep falling… right before it bounces without us.

For traders, this quote is a reminder that markets move in regimes, not straight lines. Trends exhaust. Volatility shifts. Leadership rotates. The moment you start projecting yesterday’s move into tomorrow without question, you’re no longer analyzing — you’re daydreaming. The antidote is simple: trade what is, not what was. Respect the trend, but don’t marry it. Keep stops honest, bias flexible, and ego on mute. The past is data… not destiny.