The Trading Post | 11.26.25

Good morning,

Fed rate cut odds jump to 85% as Kevin Hassett emerges as a leading Fed chair contender, Alphabet threatens Nvidia’s AI chip dominance, consumer confidence crashes toward recessionary territory, Dell hikes its AI server outlook while HP stumbles, and Medicare announces steep price cuts on Ozempic, Wegovy, and other high-cost drugs.

Want to follow a proven options system with a 70%+ win rate? Robert Roy's Power Option Plays delivers twice-weekly trade alerts with clear entry and exit plans. 

Let’s jump in.

Pre-Market Performance

As of 11.25.25 market close.

Market News

• Fed cut odds for December jump to about 85%, the 10-year yield breaks below 4%, and Kevin Hassett is now seen as the frontrunner to replace Powell at the Fed. Reuters

• Growth and rate-sensitive names catch a bid as traders embrace the easier-Fed narrative heading into the December 9–10 FOMC meeting. Bloomberg

• Alphabet rips to record highs and flirts with a $4T market cap as Meta explores swapping into Google’s TPU chips starting in 2027, putting a dent in Nvidia’s one-chip-to-rule-them-all story. Reuters

• Nvidia slips more than 2% as Google touts Gemini 3 and claims its GPUs remain “a generation ahead,” reminding traders that even AI kings can get valuation audits. CNBC

• US consumer confidence drops to 88.7, with expectations stuck below 80 for a 10th straight month – historically a pretty good leading indicator that a recession might be warming up in the bullpen. CNBC

• Dell hikes its AI server revenue outlook to $25B for FY26 after posting $12.3B in AI server orders this quarter, while HP issues soft guidance and eats a 5% selloff. Reuters

• Medicare unveils steep negotiated price cuts on 15 drugs, including ~71% discounts on Ozempic and Wegovy starting in 2027, putting long-term margin pressure on Novo Nordisk and friends. Reuters

• Urban Outfitters pops almost 20% on record Q3 sales and earnings, reminding everyone that the consumer is “weak” right up until you put the right stuff on the rack. Nasdaq

• Gold hovers near a two-week high above $4,100/oz as lower real-rate hopes and holiday FOMO keep the shiny rock bid. Reuters

• Bitcoin hangs around $87K, still down roughly 30% from October’s highs as the “number only goes up” crowd discovers retracements are, in fact, still a thing. CoinDesk

A Message From Wealth Builders HQ

Trade Options with Confidence Using a Proven System 

Power Option Plays (POP) isn't just another options alert service—it's a complete trading education wrapped around real-time trade opportunities. 

Here's what makes POP different: 

Rob Roy personally analyzes hundreds of stocks every week, selecting only the highest-probability setups based on his Fibonacci and moving average system. You get twice-weekly recorded trainings that walk you through exactly why each trade setup works, so you're learning the methodology while following along. 

Since its founding, POP has maintained an average success rate above 70%, generating millions in profit in simulated trading accounts. The system focuses on repeatable patterns using the same core stock candidates, which means you're building pattern recognition with every alert. 

What You Get: 

• Biweekly recorded training videos breaking down current market setups 

• Trade alerts with specific entry points, position sizing, and exit strategies 

• A proven tracking system that shows you exactly when to scale in and out 

• Quarterly live Q&A sessions ("Mastering The Trade") to refine your approach 

• Access to Rob's complete watchlist with bias indicators (bullish, bearish, or neutral) 

Whether you're swing trading or day trading, POP teaches you how to fish while giving you the best fishing spots. You'll learn to identify your own setups using Rob's Fibonacci-based system while following his alerts on proven candidates. 

Ready to trade with a plan? Check out Power Option Plays and start building your options trading confidence with a system that actually works. 

Earnings We’re Watching

• Deere & Company (DE) - Wednesday (BMO) 

Trade Ideas

Want to learn how we trade these? Learn the setup we call the “High Volatility Switchback” trade.

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Daily Moment of Zen

Why It Matters:

This quote is basically the trading version of “don’t poke the bear.” Every new trader wants action — they want to do something because doing nothing feels lazy, unproductive, or worse… like they’re “missing out.” But in markets, the emptiest calories come from boredom trades.

Waiting is a skill because it requires three uncomfortable things:

• Discipline to stick to your setup,

• Patience to let price come to you, and

• Ego control to accept that the market doesn’t move on your schedule.

Professionals know the money is made in the selectivity, not the activity. Sitting on your hands is often the trade. Waiting for confirmation avoids being the person who tries to “catch the early move” and instead catches falling knives, grenades, and other sharp objects not designed for human hands.

The irony?
Doing nothing is often the only thing that prevents you from blowing up your account.

In short:
Wait for your pitch. Don’t swing at garbage. And remember — the market doesn’t pay extra for effort, only for accuracy.